On the 11th November 2013 I published an article on this site titled “Is relegation looming or are the bookies right?” We were eleven games into the season and were sitting in 17th spot. The mood on the WHTID site was not dissimilar to now, regarding our performances on the pitch. Many believed we were doomed. Except the bookies! As I stated then, we were 6/1 for the drop and the bookmakers had seven teams at shorter prices than us. I also wrote that the bookies get things right much more often than they get it wrong. They have an unbiased view, one that is not swayed by emotion. The fact that seven teams finished below us that season is testament to their judgement.
So, fast forward three years and one month and we are in that same position again, 17th, and the bookies have us at 6/1 for the drop! Sound familiar? That’s a big price again for a team in this predicament. They got it right last time, so will they get it right this time too? Back in 2013 Andy Carroll was out injured and Sam’s plan of Stewart Downing and Matt Jarvis bombing down the wings and pelting in crosses for him was going pear shaped. However, we had the prodigal talent of Ravel Morrison to fall back on?
This time we have had Andy Carroll out injured again and we have the superstar Dimitri Payet to haul us out of trouble? I think we need to learn that we need to stop relying on the fitness of Andy Carroll and any other one single players brilliance to pull us out of this mess. Back in the 2013/14 season we slid even further down the table in the following two months after my article and seriously, that could be the case this season too. In January 2014 I wrote another article about Big Sams “big four”. These were the four fundamental stats that were the catalyst of his game plan. I won’t delve back into the first three but the fourth one sticks out like a sore thumb.
They also knew that if they outworked their opposition by covering more distance at speeds above 5.5m/s they would increase their chances of winning by 80%.
Anyone watching our games at the moment can see that this is one of our great failings at the moment. The urgency to press, hassle and hound is not there, well not for ninety minutes anyway. How often have we played well for one half, only to be diabolical in the other? Fitness, courage, speed and determination has been lacking and I think Slav has known all along – this side is resting on its laurels from last season. A look back at the 2011/12 season and Newcastle surprised everyone by finishing 5th in the league playing some lovely attractive football. Amongst the most common explanations for the success was the club’s courage in giving young, hungry players the opportunity to play and its ability to find diamonds like Payet and Lanzini in the form of Cisse. When Newcastle dropped to 16th the following season the story reversed completely. Now Newcastle had too many young players, the transfer policy had failed and the team lacked enough experienced English players who knew what the league was about. Suddenly the attractive style of play was naive and lacked defensive awareness.
Leicester are just another example from many of the teams that have struggled after one season of unexpected success. However, instead of young, hungry players, they had older players, often discarded by clubs, with a point to prove. They found bargains like Jamie Vardy and Mahrez, and played Ranieri’s disciplined defensive game using the pace of both on the counter-attack. Now, like Newcastle back then, Leicester are criticised. Too many older players who have lost their hunger, a poor transfer window and a style of play that is outdated. Since last season Leicester have handed out huge pay increases to hold onto their star players and spent 70m pounds in transfer fees that so far has produced little. The players can lift when they want to though – they have won more Champions League games than Premier League games this season! These two examples merely show that hunger for success is much more important than increasing a pay packet.
I still think that with a fit Carroll and Sakho this season will, or would have been so different though. You only have to look at how much better we were when Sakho played his first hour of football this season against Spurs a few weeks ago? But, because of their injury records, relying on these two has become an absolute joke. A joke that management must find a solution to. Back in that 2013/14 season it was January 29th when we ground out an amazing 0-0 draw at Chelsea. A match where we were totally outclassed but guts, determination and a lot of luck got us a point no one expected. We went on to win the next four games in February that managed to culminate in a finishing position of 13th that season. Sometimes it is that unexpected result or a match where the luck, and there is certainly plenty of that in football, turns decidedly your way and players start to believe again.
I am sure that there will be a turning point in our season. It could well have been the Spurs game until those last few minutes created the opposite effect, deflating the players, club and supporters even more. Perhaps it will be this weekend, at Liverpool, where no one expects us to win, except Toddy of course? Or will we have to wait until February again, because if the turnaround doesn’t come soon the bookies will be proved wrong for a change!
Like Newcastle and Leicester, we have become the victims of our own success from last season. Players playing without the same intensity of last season, bad luck with injuries and poor transfer dealings have all played a part in why we are where we are. All these factors combine to provide a team that eventually loses its confidence and mojo. Whenever we went one down last season we all felt we could still win, and we often did. The current team goes one down and we wonder – how many this week? Once that lost confidence has completely filtrated any sporting team of any code there is no magic wand to rediscover it. The catalyst that provides the turning point, if there is to be one, often comes when least expected.