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Please use this thread to discuss the game against Hull City as it progresses.

Up the Irons!

It seems an age since we last played, but at least that has provided the opportunity for Carlton Cole to get fit. Sadly, it seems as though Herita Ilunga won’t make this game and also Aleesandro Diamanti has got a problem with an injured hip. Hull are not an easy side to play at the best of times, and they will certainly be relishing the game this afternoon. Phil Brown still lives in fear of every game being his last one, and Hull’s performance may well depend on how much his players want him to keep his job. The portents for West Ham are not good, seeing as though Hull came back from one down to win their last home game against Stoke.

Manuel Da Costa is likely to retain his place in defence after two storming performances alongside Matthew Upson, while Spector will no doubt continue to deputise for Herita Ilunga. The midfield more or less picks itself as I can’t see Jimenenz retaining his place after his performance in the game against Everton. Welcome back Mark Noble. Up front, assuming Carlton Cole is indeed fit, Franco will start.

West Ham really need win their next two games, because after that we have got Man U and Chelsea to look forward to. We really do not want to get to Christmas and find ourselves anchored in the bottom three.

It has been reported by the Daily Star that Virgin Money have completed a survey of PL fans on their degree of concern about the finances of their respective clubs.  It is Hardly surprising that West Ham top the survey poll with 96% of Hammers fans surveyed concerned about the club’s finances.   We are followed by Liverpool in 2nd place with 90% worried about the club’s debt and Portsmouth in third place with 84%.

The headline survey results on degree of PL fan financial concerns are as follows:

• West Ham Utd FC  (95%)
• Liverpool  (90%)
• Portsmouth   (84%)
• Everton   (62%)
• Hull City   (54%)
• Man Utd  (50%)
• Blackburn Rovers  (50%)
• Bolton   (33%)
• Fulham  (31%)
• Birmingham City  (29%)
• Chelsea  (22%)
• Wigan  (17%)
• Arsenal  (7%)
• Stoke City  (7%)
• Sunderland  (7%)
• Man City  (6%)
• Wolves  (5%)
• Burnley  (5%)
• Aston Villa  (2%)
• Spurs  (1%)

Obviously, the Hammers being at the top of the survey is no big shock.  Hammers fans are constantly bombarded with doomsday media messages about financial meltdown, player fire sales and administration, this % response largely reflects that.  It does not, however, follow that our actual financial position is as bad as fans perceived it to be!

Liverpool’s 2nd place on 90% reflects the financial challenges that they face, whilst a nervous 50% of Man Utd fans realise that a financial reckoning could be on the cards for them at some point.   A sizable 22% minority of Chelski fans are nervous for the club’s future, but only 7% of gooner fans feel that there is any financial threat.  As for the Spuds on 1%, well they obviously think they are financially fire proof! 

An interest exercise.

Discuss.

The Sun brings us the shock horror revelation this morning that David Sullivan wants to obtain 50% of West Ham … for free. He says if Straumur give him the shares and let him run the club, he will invest £40 million of his own money. He must think Straumur were born yesterday. I see The Sun has pushed our level of indebtedness up to £120 million. Frankly, any guess about debt is just that – guesswork.

Just a note to Mr Sullivan – Christmas Day is December 25th … or perhaps the date of April 1st would be more appropriate in his case.

As predicted, the media retain an unhealthy obsession with the alleged departure of our key players for other clubs!  

In the headlines at the weekend, there was a report about Valon Behrami allegedly speculating on one day playing for a bigger club!  I would suggest that the original quote from Behrami be scrutinised before any Hammers fans take hard and fast view on this.  The quote printed in the UK press looked a tad clipped and manufactured for my tastes!  Also, I doubt that Behrami is unaware that in today’s world a comment made in Geneva will be reported in the UK the very same day!  As such, I would expect that those comments need to be firmly put back in to the right context!

Next up is Matt Upson, who appears to have been questioned post-match on Saturday about the effect of West Ham’s current position upon his world cup ambitions.  The bottom line appears to be that he said he is a West Ham player and that he is happy at the club.  He concedes that it is better to be in a team doing well, but the situation will not effect his England chances one way or the other! 

He must have also been asked about the prospects of moving club, because he stated that a choice has not been put on the table and as such was not worthy of consideration.   In other words, no move is in the offing, so why talk about it?  All very reasonable and commendable from a senior professional and our club captain!

Finally, there is the whole issue about Liverpool and Man Utd eyeing up Carlton Cole for £20m!  The club have now come out and stated that he will not be sold at any price.  No doubt the media will ignore that and carry on speculating regardless.  I am surprised that they have not also floated a ‘Green to Spurs’ story in response to Cudicini’s unfortunate motor accident.  However, I guess there is still plenty of time for that to emerge as a headline?

Still, on one hand, West Ham should arguably expect loyalty from these players.  Why?  Well,  because when West Ham signed them, Green (Norwich City), Upson (Birmingham City) and Cole (Chelski) they did not arguably have the reputation or profile that they do now;  and I do not actually remember anyone seriously competing with us for Behrami’s signature before we signed him! 

Now Green, Upson and Cole are all England regulars and the big boys of Italian football are interested in Behrami!   Not a bad transformation in fortunes for any of them at ‘little old’ West Ham Utd FC, is it? 

On the other hand, I guess that international players do have a right to expect their clubs to show some sort of ambition to compete regularly in Europen competitions!  Until we make that transition as a club we are always going to have players becoming discontent or unsettled.

It is probably too much to ask for loyalty in the modern game, but at the same time we should not condemn players on the back of spun news stories.  Hopefully all four players will contribute to rectifying the current situation at West Ham and stay to build something worthwhile in the longer term.   Who knows, with an alleged impending change of ownership, we may even get to see the injection of ambition that players of their class are entitled to expect from their club!

Fingers firmly crossed!

There were some interesting comments by Sir Trevor Brooking, this week, on West Ham’s unique contribution to the England set up.  He argued that Capello was implementing a system where players throughout the team were comfortable on the ball, could play the ball out from the back and pass through midfield.  Within that context,  Sir Trevor argued that the ‘West Ham way’ of doing things fitted in perfectly with that ethos.  And the Hammers had over 40 years experience of playing that way, since Greenwood embedded his footballing philosophy at the club in the early 1960s.

This observation illustrates the strength and continuing relevance of Greenwood’s ideas.  He was probably the most innovative coach that England has ever produced and his ideas revolutionised coaching in this country.   His indirect contribution to the 1966 World Cup victory cannot be over-estimated.  Indeed, one could argue that the 1966 Final was won on the training pitches of Chadwell Heath!   However, what a tribute to the man that his way of doing things is still contributing to England’s challenge for world football’s biggest prize in 2010!

Matt Upson is a quality centre back, there is no doubt about that.  There has been some criticism of his recent performances.  However, I think part of it is that he has been so consistently good over the last couple of seasons that if he has a dip in form then it is noticable.  Ideally, we will retain all of our best players in January and the funds will be made available to further strengthen the squad (fingers crossed!). 

However, it has been suggested that with Upson’s current contractual situation, and the possible need to raise transfer funds, he should be sold in January.  Fair enough, but the issue for me is who is to be brought in to replace him?  Where are we going to find an experienced, left sided central defender of comparable class, for the mooted £10-12m?  It should also be a player that is used to the demands to the PL and can make an instant positive impact! 

If we can pull that off then fine, if not then Upson should be retained until the summer at least.  The summer is obviously the time to carry out a radical overhaul of your squad, not the winter transfer window.   But I recognise that major surgery, and the upheaval that it entails, is sometimes unavoidable.  The trick, however, is to improve the quality of the squad and not just make changes for the sake of change.  If Upson’s sale does that then ok, but practically it is going to be a tough ask to replace him with someone better in January!

Predictably, rumours have started doing the rounds about possible Liverpool and Man Utd c.£20m bids for Carlton Cole.  Well, I can understand why they would be interested in the most improved striker in the PL.  However, West Ham need to firmly reject any such offer.  Cole is going to be vital to our immediate plans to move up the PL and Zola and Clarke’s  longer term strategies to bring success to the club. 

Interestingly, in an interview with Zola on the club website, he states that the club has no intention of selling its best players in January and there is no compulsion to do so.  There has been no separate club statement on this, but Zola was probably imparting assurances that have been given him in discussions with the CE and board.  Heard that one before?  Well yes, but last January they took a similar stance and, Bellamy aside, they were true to their word.  Time will tell!

Obviously, our activity in the January tranfer window is tied up with the ongoing situation regardng the ownership of the club.  Whether there is a takeover before Christmas, necessity dictates that C&B Holdings find the monies to invest in the squad or we have to sell to buy?  Again, time will tell!

SJ Chandos.

On loan starlet Freddie Sears has obviously been enjoying his time with Crystal Palace.  He has confirmed that in a recent interview with a local paper over in South London.

His response to the question, what would you do if  Palace were promoted and the Hammers relegated this season makes interesting reading. 

Sears is quoted in the Croydon Advertiser as stating:

“I’ve loved my time here from day one. I really want to stay for the rest of the season and repay the faith the manager and fans have shown in me.” “All the lads in the dressing room have been asking me what I’d do if we went up and West Ham went down,” he added. “You just don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m not saying that I don’t want to go back to West Ham but, as I say, I’ve loved my time here and think the club can really push on in the next couple of years.”

For the sake of his career, Sears needs to ensure that his focus is right.  He needs to score goals for Palace in the Championship as a direct stepping stone back into West Ham’s first team plans.   Because without a shadow of a doubt that is where he should be aiming to be! 

We should continue to keep an open mind about Sears’ potential to make the grade, but he really does need to start underlining his  pedigree during this loan stint in the 2nd tier.  I know he has had an injury, but by this stage of the season he should be turning in the kind of performances that raise the the prospect of his return to bolster the Hammers squad! 

As it is, there does not presently appear to be any such move for his return and he is likely to get his expressed wish to remain at Palace for the rest of this season!

SJ Chandos.

Reviewing the issues surrounding the club, one can only arrive at the conclusion that there are currently more questions than answers.  As fans, that makes it very difficult to assess how the land lies with any degree  of certainty? However, arguably it is still possible to take a critical and considered view based upon what the philosopher Vico called the basis of all truth, probability!

We cannot say that we are 100% certain about the scale of debt being carried by the club.  The delay in  making the latest set of accounts public means that there is not a reliable and up to date yardstick against which to measure the current state of the club’s financial affairs.  Nature abhors a vacum, but our press and media love it!  The vacum has been filled by wild speculation about the club having an estimated £100m of debt, which has been further ‘talked up’ by some interests in an alleged attempt to push through a cut price deal for the club.

Personally, I would be very surprised if the debt amounted to any more than c.£45m in total, which set against our c.£85m annual turnover is both manageable and serviceable.  If this assessment of the situation is  true, then it is indeed a joke that we are constantly being portrayed as a crisis club, in an impending state of financial meltdown, when the scale of our debt is so much more manageable than some other very prominent PL clubs.

Another big question mark is the strategy and intentions of C&B Holdings.  Some would have us believe that we totter on the brink of administration, dependent upon the whims of Straumur’s faceless creditors!  The truth is that C&B Holdings is a flag of financial convenience for maintaining and eventually exploiting the major asset that is West Ham Utd FC.  In that sense it is probably best  characterised as a relatively safe short to medium term life boat than a long term ownership arrangement.

However, the administration and asset stripping scare stories doing the rounds can probably be safely dismissed.  West Ham is arguably ‘firewalled’ against the debts of its majority stakeholder company and the PL can only take action against the club if it is proven that it is the club itself that is financially insolvent.  Also, there is clearly no advantage in plundering the playing staff, as this will just devalue the asset and decrease its value in the market. 

Which begs the question, are we as financially stable and self-sustaining as Duxbury and others have claimed?  The probability is that the good work undertaken by Duxbury towards the end of BG’s reign has greatly reduced the club’s annual expenditure against its turnover.  In particular, the wage bill at the club will have been brought under control and Duxbury will have worked on increasing the sources of income flowing in to the club from areas such as merchandising and sponsorship. 

In addition, moves are afoot internally to negotiate new, improved contracts for the likes of Collison and Hines.  Whilst one can only hope that the same is true of Robert Green and Matt Upson.  This is a good indicator of the club’s financial state, as clubs in financial crisis tend to have trouble paying existing wage bills, let alone striking new lucrative deals!  And as I have said previously, another powerful indicator is the activity of the PL around West Ham’s finances.  The PL have already reacted to previous horror stories in the press by seeking assurances from the club regarding its solvency.  They have been satisfied with West Ham’s response and one can only assume that the club’s assurances still hold good.

Are C&B Holdings ready to sell in the current economic climate?  The consensus seems to be that a bid of £120m is the threshold to spark off a sale.   It is still not clear what influence external factors such as the acceptance or otherwise of Straumur’s re-structuring plans by its creditors will have?  Nor the extent of the role West Ham Utd FC as a balance sheet asset will play in those restructuring plans and the longer-term future of Straumur.  If they stabilise the ship around a long term restructure, is it possible that C&B Holdings might hold on to and seek to maximise the value of the club, before disposing of it in a better economic climate.

Of course, the discussion about the future of the club is being skewed at the moment by our current position in the league.  Whilst we are in the bottom half of the PL, there will be a morbid pre-occupation with the disastrous impact of another relegation upon the future of the club.  If we continue to struggle, and C&B Holdings retain control, we can only hope that  they are able to release transfer funds in January.  It is all very well promising a transfer pot of c.£30m next season, but that investment will not materialise if we were to fall into the 2nd tier. 

Certainly relegation is unthinkable.  This squad probably does have the quality to move away from the relegation zone, but investment is still needed to strengthen the squad to ensure that this is most definitely the case.  If our PL position does not improve before the New Year then a move into the transfer market in January becomes absolutely vital to stave off relegation. 

In that scenerio, spending is the only sensible option available to C&B Holdings to preserve the value of its prized asset.  If they retain control, let us hope that wider developments provide them with greater scope for investment in the playing squad this winter.  C&B Holdings are arguably the architects of our bad start to this season via the failure to adequately invest in the squad this summer.  They need to put that right or they will stand accused of repeating the old board’s mistake of not releasing funds in the winter window of 2002-03 to avoid relegation, only this time the demotion would come with even more dire consequences.

Then we have factor X!  The proposed bid for the club by the InterMarket Consortium.   The commissioning of Rothschilds to seek investment in the club can only logically mean one of two thing, C&B Holdings are seeking an outright buyer or are prepared to give up a % of ownership to generate external investment.  If it is the latter then perhaps it is part of a phased deal for transfering control of the club.

Some commentators have dismissed the InterMarket bid as not viable.  Yet, sources close to the consortium still maintain that their bid is deadly serious!  Indeed, it has been reported that they have cleared the first hurdle by convincing Rothschilds that they have the resources at their disposal to mount a take over bid.  The ultimate confirmation of intent will be if and when they follow up on any non-disclosure agreement by entering into a period of due diligence prior to a sale. 

Will they try to force a deal through or will they shadow the club and try to exploit Straumur’s perceived weakness to get the most advantagous price?  If front man Jim Bowe’s prior reported statements are an indicator of their intentions then they want a deal that ensures ‘that  everyone wins,’ which means Straumur agreeing a deal for c.£100m plus. 

Also, there would arguably be a strong business imperative to conclude a deal to allow the club funds to operate in the winter transfer window.  It is crucial to stave off relegation and ensure that West Ham remain in the PL.  If they miss the transfer window then their ability to use their wealth to influence events is greatly reduced.

Interestingly, elsewhere it has been reported that representatives of the InterMarket Consortium have allegedly met with the Olympics Authority to discuss the future use of the Olympic Stadium post 2012.  Cold, hard economic realities are pushing the Olympics Authority towards the only long-term solution possible for the future use of the facility, to secure a deal with a PL club.  Allegedly they are far more amicable to the idea of coming to an arrangement with West Ham on their future usage of the stadium.

Not only will this secure an ultra-modern stadium with a suitable capacity for the future growth of he club, but it may also possibly free up capital receipts on the possible sale and re-development of Upton Park.  Whether this is a significant factor in any new consortium’s plans is an open question.

There is no doubt that we Hammers fans, as they say, live in ‘interesting times’  as far as the ownership andcontrol of the club is concerned.  However, they are also times that are inherently uncertain.   As fans  we can only stand by and watch as  events unfold that will hopefully negate that uncertainty and provide the best possible solution for the future investment and success of West Ham Utd FC! 

One thing is certain and that is that the next change of ownership needs to be the right one for the long term future of the club.  We cannot afford a ‘frying pan’ to ‘fire’ scenerio emerging.  Any takeover needs to be by ambitious, cash rich new owners who will continue ‘Project Football’ but supplement it with some top class imports.  A formula that can finally increase the chances of the sustainable domestic and European success that this club’s fans so richly deserve. 

SJ Chandos.

Last night I recorded a 40 minute Stop! It’s Hammer Time podcast with West Ham fan and stand up comedian Phil Whelans and his colleague Jim Grant. We talk aboujt all things West Ham, including the performance against Everton. I do apologise for the bad word I used. Although maybe they have edited it out!

Listen HERE.

You can find out more about this weekly podcast (last week they had Kris Akabussi on) on their Facebook page HERE.