Just over ten years ago Sam Allardyce, manager of Bolton Wanderers, conceptualised a rigid game plan around data sourced from a company called Prozone. It was a total success as Bolton were promoted to the Premier league and enjoyed many seasons in the top flight punching well above their weight. With his background staff of analysts,(David Fallows a former Prozone analyst, Gavin Fleig and Ed Sulley), they came up with a model for the club called the “Fantastic Four”. Sam sticks by these principles to this day. These were the four areas that dictated success.
- Over a season of 38 games they “knew” that if they had 16 clean sheets they would avoid relegation.
- If they scored first they would have a 70% chance of winning the game.
- They knew that set pieces, corners and free kicks accounted for a third of all goals and in-swinging corners accounted for 70% of goals scored from all corners. So they practiced on their own set pieces and defending the oppositions. Long throws were another set piece to put the ball into the zone.
- They also knew that if they outworked their opposition by covering more distance at speeds above 5.5m/s they would increase their chances of winning by 80%.
Other factors that were important were knowing that a team will score on average once from nine shots. Also 80% of goals would be scored from movements of less than four passes and that half of all goals scored would be from winning possession back in the final third of the pitch.
Prozones player tracking stats are believed to be used by 19 of the 20 PL clubs including West Ham. However, Sam’s analytic plan from the early years at Bolton may now be outdated? For instance, the scoring goals from less than four passes stat is flawed. That stat is just because most movements in football are like that, it was not that the odds of scoring were better. The odds of scoring is actually higher if you maintain possession.
What I would be asking Sam is if we are playing to the Fantastic Four is; Do you really think that if we keep seven more clean sheets this season we will stay up? Why have we only scored 4 goals in the first 30 minutes of all matches in the PL all season? Why have we not scored a goal direct from a free kick in the PL this season and our opposition have scored four? Why have we lost on four occasions this season when we have scored first? Why if long throws are such an important strategy, do we not have any one with a long throw? And finally, do you think our injury list this season may have anything to do with our players expected to work harder and faster than the opposition, rather than keep the ball?