Abdallah Sima, Marko Arnautovic, Josh King, Patson Daka, Boulaye Dia, Eddie Nketiah… You can tell it’s January and West Ham are on the hunt for a striker. There have been so many names appearing over the last two weeks that it’s seemed almost impossible to keep track.
So, with a bit of extra time on my hands thanks to the pandemic and a growing curiosity over what we were looking for in our Sébastien Haller replacement, I decided to set about profiling and comparing a handful of those linked so far.
All of the data below has been taken from this season (12.9.20 – present) and compares the linked forwards to each other and to current main man, Michail Antonio (outlined in orange). Source: “Wyscout”:https://wyscout.com/
Goals per 90 (data: this season, 12.9.20 – present)
Daka: 1.29
Dia: 0.74
(Antonio: 0.45)
Both of our top targets have prolific goalscoring records this season. pic.twitter.com/YHn7rVucKD— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
It’s been suggested this week that our top two targets would be Boulaye Dia and Patson Daka so my analysis will focus on those two. And players with <300 minutes played this season will be excluded from any comparisons.
Though Daka has a significant lead on Dia here, it shouldn’t be underestimated just how good both of these records are. Dia is fifth in Ligue 1 by this measure and Daka is second in the Austrian Bundesliga.
For reference, the current leader in the Premier League is Anwar El Ghazi (0.86).
Non-penalty goals per 90
Daka: 1.29
(Antonio: 0.45)
Dia: 0.41
When you adjust the data to factor just non-penalty goals, it's a little more concerning for Dia. Though he still has a good record, taking his four penalties away knocks him down the list significantly. pic.twitter.com/dKjzbJKsFH— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
Adjusting the data to show just non-penalty goals per 90 tells a different story. Once you remove Dia’s penalty goals, he falls from being the fifth most regular scorer in Ligue 1 to 15th, level with less reputable names like Moussa Konaté and Habib Diallo.
Dia has scored five penalties this season rather than the four suggested in the tweet.
Conversion rate
Dia: 38%
Daka: 26%
(Antonio: 17%)
Finishing is clearly an area of Dia's game where he is very strong. One in every 2.6 shots he takes hits the back of the net. pic.twitter.com/MvyPZ0WJAC— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
Looking at their finishing, Dia has a strong record ? a 38% conversion rate places him top in Ligue 1 (of players with ten or more shots). And while Daka isn’t quite as strong in this area, he still boasts a very respectable ratio of a goal every four shots.
Both are overperforming their xG and would be considered clinical finishers.
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Patson Daka can match Mohamed Salah’s 25% conversion rate.
It’s not all about goals and finishing though. Sometimes it’s all about scrapping, chasing and battling for the ball…
Offensive Duels won
Dia: 40
Daka: 39%
(Antonio: 32%)
Both Dia and Daka are effective at protecting the ball from opposing defenders. pic.twitter.com/6YgDZKySQW— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
Offensive duels track how well a player protects the ball from the opposing defenders in holding the ball up and dribbling without losing possession. Both targets have solid numbers here that are an improvement on Antonio (32%) and Haller’s (27%) returns.
Aerial Duels won
(Antonio: 44)
Daka: 42%
Dia: 21%
Daka has a similar level of ability in the air to Antonio but Dia wins the least headers of any of the mentioned targets.
Marginally less than Adam Armstrong who is 5'8". pic.twitter.com/KPn1mf4mNJ— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
Comparing aerial ability is where the first and only major red flag appears. While Daka’s 42% success rate is respectable, Dia’s 21% rate would place him in the Danny Ings/Rhian Brewster/Callum Robinson region of the Premier League strikers table when ranked by aerial prowess. Right at the bottom.
This would potentially be a serious concern given our tendency to spend short periods of games launching the ball long to try and alleviate pressure. If Dia was unable to win many of these duels, we may find ourselves unable to turn the tide in those crucial moments.
Progressive Runs per 90
(Antonio: 1.94)
Dia: 1.56
Daka: 0.81
Again, as you might expect Antonio is the most effective ball carrier but there is also a slight drop-off for Daka here. pic.twitter.com/21huUu42S2— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
When comparing them by ball carrying ability, Dia comes out ahead. This isn’t surprising given Dia’s role as a lone striker in Reims’ defensive, counter-attacking system, he is often tasked with dragging his team up the pitch. Though neither player post particularly impressive numbers here and they both come out in the lower halves of their respective divisions.
This could potentially be a concern given how impactful and important Antonio’s ball carrying has been for us over the course of Moyes’ second stint as manager. Something to work on in training…
(Finally, for now) Pass Accuracy
Dia: 81%
(Antonio: 73%)
Daka: 65%
This makes it clear that Dia is more likely to choose safer options but is consistent in possession.
And Daka is more likely to choose riskier options and is therefore less consistent in possession. pic.twitter.com/ZDqp3bIVGW— Jack Elderton (@jackelderton) January 13, 2021
Lastly, a look at their passing ability and creativity. Here it’s clear to see that the two players have very different styles.
Daka is more likely to attempt penetrative passes in forward areas but does so with a very low success rate (22% of his smart passes find their target). And Dia is more consistent in his safe selection of passes though when he does try a smart pass, he completes those with an even lower success rate (17%).
It would be a priority to ensure Daka understands the importance of keeping possession when we do get it and for him to improve his pass selection to eradicate some of the ball-losses.
I think the key takeaway from all of this is that these are good targets.
Both Boulaye Dia and Patson Daka are, on paper, good options to play the central striking role for a David Moyes team. They have the necessary attributes to successfully battle for and protect the ball and then take their chance when it comes. And both are quick and powerful in the Michail Antonio mould. Either would bring some genuine youth, enthusiasm and competition to the striker department at West Ham.
But I do have a preference. And that would be Patson Daka.
The young Zambian striker has an absurd goalscoring record and possesses the pace to play on the shoulder alongside the strength and aerial ability to play with his back to goal. Though there are fair concerns over his level of experience playing as a lone striker (he is often deployed in a front two at RB Salzburg), those physical attributes stand him in good stead to be able to handle the solitary role.
Dia may be well-acquainted to the role but his long-term form is cause for concern. Joint top scorer in Ligue 1 this season but his seven goals last season paint a less exciting picture.
Daka’s form is far more consistent. 24 goals in 31 games last term and eight in eight this season are exciting returns and although some would argue “It’s the Austrian Bundesliga!”, he’s at RB Salzburg where the quality of backroom work and training is high. This is the same club that has produced names like Sadio Mané, Erling Haaland, Dayot Upamecano and Naby Keïta in recent years.
He may cost a fair chunk more but would hopefully provide a long-term solution up-top. And if anything did go wrong, his significant resale value would offer some protection.
Who would you choose?