Blind Hammer also looks at the enigmatic pros and cons of starting Hernandez
One of the risks of writing weekly posts is that other bloggers will submit posts of similar ilk. Great minds think alike and all that. With apologies then I submit this piece already written before FC Chandos posted yesterday. At least this can be presented as a debate. here is the piece written on Tuesday.
If West Ham survive the relegation threat which has haunted us, it will be due, in no small measure, to Hernandez’s goals. He would concede that he has not set the Premiership alight, yet his equaliser against Chelsea adds to a tally of match winning or point grabbing contributions. His away goal against Palace ensured we rescued a point despite their second half domination. In the reverse fixture Palace conceded a penalty against his threat, enabling Noble to equalise. Another effort garnered a precious point against Bournemouth. His goal against Watford highlights the important of his contribution against teams considered our rivals. In a season with an extraordinarily compressed lower table these contributions have probably ensured our survival. Without his interventions in these critical fixtures we would not only be at least 7 points worse off, but arguably, just as damagingly, adrift as we would have surrendered at least 9 points to immediate relegation rivals.
In only 3 games have Hernandez’s goals failed in a losing cause. His brace away against Southampton accompanied another South coast reversal against Brighton. His remaining goal in a losing cause registered in our home defeat to Tottenham.
Hernandez has achieved this despite niggling injuries and illness feeding prolonged absences. When played he often finds himself in a formation ill-suited to his strengths.
There seems objective evidence then that Moyes should be inking Hernandez in as one of the first names on his team sheet.
Yet even now considerable doubt surrounds Hernandez inclusion. He can plummet from hero to zero in the space of 90 minutes. He is the classic goal scoring enigma, offering little beyond goal poaching. When he is good, he is very very good; when bad he can be awful. He disappears in scraps requiring effort, muscularity and athleticism.
Luckily Marco Arnautovic has emerged as a match winner who can offer the requisite athleticism and work rate that Hernandez seems unable to provide. Consequently it is Arnautovic who has grabbed the main headlines. He has been the inspirational force in our most eye catching performances, whether it the winner in our home fixture against Chelsea, our away thumpings of Stoke and Huddersfield, or arguably our game of the decade in the home win, against enormous pre-match pressure against Southampton.
Equally importantly, until the Chelsea equaliser, our most incisive offensive partnerships have relied on Arnautovic combining with Lanzini rather than Hernandez. I can remember only the Watford game as an occasion when Hernandez joined Arnautovic on the score sheet.
Yet Hernandez is not the only player who can flit from hero to zero in a blink. Mario and Fernandez received justifiable praised for their performance against Southampton but were heavily criticised for their anonymous performance against Chelsea. Arguments are already building for their replacement by Hernandez and possibly, if fit, Lanzini.
I have sympathy for both Mario and Fernandez. Lauded for their positive performance against players like Redmond they are panned for not replicating this against players of the calibre of Hazard and William. This seems illogical to me. Stoke will provide a challenge similar to that provided by Southampton. I am not persuaded that we should jettisoned Fernandez. Against Southampton he provided the pace, energy and commitment which we are likely to require. Lambert will ensure that Stoke offer a challenge of hard work, high pressing, and physical combativeness. The game is likely to be a blood and thunder battle. In other words it may be just the sort of game in which Hernandez will struggle.
Hernandez’s accomodation actually still takes second place to greater priorities. Over the season our Leakey and ineffectual defence continues as our most punishing weakness. Any recent improvement should not blind us to our shocking defensive record. The bald stats do not lie. In the goals against table we are easily in the bottom 3. Amongst all the teams below us actually only Stoke have a worse record than us. Stoke will understand then, more than anybody, the paper thin confidence a porous defence can create. They will inevitably target this vulnerability. Only 2 games ago we conceded 7 goals to Swansea and Burnley. Despite the revelation of Declan Rice increasingly mature emergence it would be foolish to assume that these problems are behind us. Stoke will attempt to exploit this fragility. Lambert will also hope that negative volatility of campaign against the Stadium will re-emerge if West Ham fall behind and will help their cause.
All this indicates that this is another game in which the first goal will be critical. Whilst this has been billed as a “must win” it is in reality a must not lose game. Drawing against Stoke would be disappointing but not terminal. Losing might just plummet our season and snatch defeat out of the jaws of safety.
Moyes will know that in recent games Stoke have paid the price of tiring after initial first half efforts. It seems then that Hernandez is best positioned again to make a telling contribution from the bench. His particular skill set may be lethal against tiring Stoke defenders with weakened concentration. Match winning interventions from the bench are under rated. Before the season Mourinho praised the talents of Hernandez, and his goal scoring record. It was precisely his ability to transform games from the bench that he was most complementary of. What we require first and foremost against Stoke is a solid performance. It is from that position of strength that Hernandez’s talents may assist us most.
COYI
David Griffith