Another point and another step closer to Premier League survival. I won’t dwell too much on the game at Chelsea as David Hautzig and Hamburg Hammer have already written excellent pieces on the match. We rode our luck at times but that will always be the case against any of the top six teams in the division, especially away from home. However, it was a gritty display and after last week’s performance against Southampton it augurs well for the challenges ahead as the season draws to a close. For about twelve minutes near the end of the match it was as thrilling as it gets, like two boxers giving it all at the end of a bout. Both swinging with all their might looking for the knockout punch. Indeed, we might have stolen the points when Arnie came crashing down in the box, but alas no penalty was given. For me Kante’s tackle was a good one but I am sure not all will agree. This is why when VAR does come in they must stick by the on field referees calls in these types of moments. When there is still doubt after watching a video replay their initial on field verdict must be final, or the whole process will not work. I must admit, the only time during Sunday’s game where I vented was on the back of that short corner kick we took in the last two minutes. We had one last chance to win the game and we threw it away. If we are going to decline that opportunity and opt to waste time with a view to respecting the point, at least do it well. We would have wasted more time by kicking the ball into the crowd for a goal kick straight from the corner, rather than the debacle attempted between Cullen and Noble.
This coming weekend is huge in relation to the relegation fight. If we can beat Stoke we will be safe in my opinion and if Chelsea can also beat Southampton it will further cement our position. Should we fail to beat Stoke and teams around us win it will still makes things very tricky. A few weeks ago in my column I gave a run down on what lies ahead for the teams in the relegation dog fight. Here is an update.
West Brom are down now and whilst it is still mathematically possible they could survive, they won’t.
Stoke are giving it their all, as are their fans, but they have let in 63 goals in 33 games (highest in the PL) and in recent times have also been fairly blunt in attack as well. They have put in decent enough performances in their last two matches – Arsenal away and Spurs at home, but have come away with nothing. Since the turn of the year they have only scored in six of their PL games and only once have they scored more than one. The bookies rate them at 2/7 (78%) for the drop. They have played one more game than us and their remaining fixtures are; West Ham (a), Burnley (h), Liverpool (a), Crystal Palace (h) and Swansea (a). They have enough winnable games left to give them hope but a loss to the Hammers would make things really tough.
Southampton put in a much improved effort on the weekend at Arsenal. Whilst the home side fielded a weakened side due to Cup commitments later this week, the Saints gave the Gunners plenty of problems especially at the back end of the game. However, they have only won once in their past nineteen PL games and that was against bottom club West Brom. The bookies price them at around even money for relegation (50%) and their run in comprises; Chelsea (H), Leicester (a), Bournemouth (h), Everton (a), Swansea (a) and Man City (h). This weekend’s game for them is huge as it will leave them with only two more home games to play this season. One will be against their local rivals who would love to put one over them and the other is against the Champions in waiting.
Crystal Palace have the easiest run in of all the relegation candidates but they must start to win some of these or they could be drawn under. The bookies make them a 10/1 (9%) chance for relegation and they are three points behind us having played one more game. Their run is; Brighton (h), Watford (a), Leicester (h), Stoke (a) and West Brom (h). If they can’t conjure up half a dozen points from that lot they probably deserve to go down.
Huddersfield are really struggling. They scored a fortunate goal in their away game at Brighton on the weekend to earn a point but showed a distinct lack of ambition when Brighton were reduced to ten men with fifteen minutes to play. Since they beat Watford back on the 16th December they have only won twice, against West Brom and Bournemouth. Their lucky goal at Brighton on the weekend was their first in five matches. They are two points behind us and have played one more game. The bookies rate them a 6/4 (40%) chance to drop and they finish the season with; Watford (h), Everton (h), Man City (a), Chelsea (a) and Arsenal (h). Again, probably their most winnable game remaining is this weekend which highlights the importance of this coming round of fixtures.
Swansea were a team on a roll just a few weeks ago, after looking certainties to go down before their change of manager in late December. They have failed to win in their past three PL games since they beat us 4-1 and are not out of the woods just yet. Like us, they have six games left but now trail the Hammers by two points. They are 11/2 (15%) to be relegated and their remaining fixtures are; Everton (h), Man City (a), Chelsea (h), Bournemouth (a), Southampton (h) and Stoke (h). Like us, four of their remaining six fixtures will be played on their home ground. Again, their most winnable game in the next four fixtures is this weekend. Whether Swansea stay up or go down one thing is almost certain. Their last two fixtures of the season will probably decide who does.
Brighton are 20/1 (4.76%) to go down. They are one point ahead of us and finish this season with; Crystal Palace (a), Spurs (h), Burnley (a), Man Utd (h), Man City (a) and Liverpool (a). Again, looking at their final five fixtures of the season the importance of this weekend’s clash with Palace is huge for them.
So what of us? West Ham are now rated a 25/1 (3.85%) chance for relegation. However, a loss this weekend would severely affect the relegation markets. Our remaining games are; Stoke (h), Arsenal (a), Man City (h), Leicester (a), Man Utd (h) and Everton (H). Last week I wrote that a Man City win in the CL ties against Liverpool could see them play a weakened side against us should they reach the semi-finals. Our PL match with them would be sandwiched between the two semis. That is looking more unlikely now but a similar thing will probably happen for our match at Arsenal. They carry a 4-1 lead into their second leg tie with CSKA Moscow this week and should they prevail our match with them will be played just days before the first semi-final leg of the Europa League. The Gunners have fielded weakened teams in the past fortnight against our relegation rivals Stoke and Southampton due to them prioritising the Cup, but neither of those two have been able to take advantage of some pretty awful displays from Wenger’s team. Whilst Arsenal have stuck three goals past both of them it has hardly told the real story. Hopefully, Wenger will do the honours and field a team of similar strength for our visit.
So to conclude. This weekend is a huge game for us and Stoke, but a quick look at how the fixture list is panning out and there a few other matches this weekend that will go a long way to deciding who will be relegated this season. Let’s hope the boys can bring this one home. COYI.