Fifty weeks ago I wrote an article with the header “Our biggest game since Blackpool?” The game I was alluding to was the home fixture with Swansea in early April 2017. At that time we were heading towards the relegation places at an alarming rate on the back of five successive losses and just two points from the past seven matches. When I say “biggest game” my intention was to portray the importance of points to the team, not to compare it to any of the memorable wins against Manchester United, Chelsea or Spurs where the atmosphere has been rocking. We went on to win that game against Swansea and only suffered one more defeat in a season where we eventually finished 11th. This weekend we take on Southampton and in many ways we are in a very similar position to where we were before last seasons victory over Swansea. Here are some of the key points I made in that article nearly a year ago.
“We have a left back (Cresswell) who has lost all form”……… “Kouyate is a shadow of his former self”……… “Noble has got slower”……….” (Obiang) who looked most likely to win HOTY has been lost for the season”……… “The fact is that even with all these excuses, we have been poor for just about the whole season”……..” A few tantalising sprinklings of what may or could have been with wins over Palace, Boro and Saints have been overshadowed by a team that cannot defend, crumbles once it concedes and lacks any real consistency on any level”……….” Last season should have been a platform for the club but the transfer policy actually just threw us back into Premiership mediocrity”.
It sounds like Groundhog Day doesn’t it? Albert Einstein said that you can’t keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result. Now I’m not Einstein and fifty weeks ago I was only stating the bleedin’ obvious – yet I still keep waking up to Sonny and Chers “I got you Babe”. At least weatherman Phil Connors made the necessary changes to his life and eventually escaped the time loop. West Ham fans are not so fortunate. There may be bigger and more important games to come this season but for now this game against Southampton is huge. It really could be a catalyst for what transpires for the rest of the season. Indeed, our future as a club. Whilst we hope for a game where our supporters create an uplifting atmosphere for the team, the reality is it is going to be very tense. I haven’t seen a lot of Southampton’s games in recent months but I did watch their cup tie at Wigan. They were fortunate not to be two or three down by half time. They barely created anything and they had players bottling challenges and visibly not wanting the ball. But a few touches of top flight class and a few slices of luck saw them through. It was new manager Mark Hughes first game in charge and with a two week break in front of him the Saints fans will be hoping for a “bounce”. They will also have their much missed Charlie Austin back for the visit to the OS.
Embed from Getty ImagesAs I wrote last week, Southampton have only won five Premier League games this season. That includes two against bottom side West Brom and one against a ten man West Ham – the other two were both last year against Everton and Crystal Palace. They are the draw specialists of the division though with thirteen in thirty games. The stats suggest this one has a draw written all over it too. West Ham have scored just five first half goals at home all season whilst Southampton have scored six away from home in the same period. Both teams have conceded ten. The Hammers fare marginally better with second half home goals; scoring eleven and conceding ten – the Saints are seven for and thirteen against in their second half away fixtures. Whilst the draw seems the bet, historically one of the sides normally finds a way to win with just eleven draws in the past 59 encounters – although five of those draws have come in the past fourteen matches played. In the past eleven meetings between the two clubs both sides have tasted victory on four occasions. Southampton are the bookies favourites to win this game. It is a rarity that an away team placed below the home team on the table, at this stage of the season, should be shorter odds or more fancied than the home team. I would suggest this is based purely on the toxic atmosphere at our last home game. I just hope if we do go a goal down again this weekend it is not yet another Groundhog Day.
Personally, I would like to see Masuaku come straight back into the side following his six match suspension. He does have the odd mistake in him (don’t they all) but we have really missed his drive forward down the left. I would also like to see Adrian re-instated. Other than that, I would love to see “post” and “rub of the green” make long awaited appearances. They have been sorely missed.