Blind Hammer is puzzled about Bilic’s apparent reluctance to address defensive weaknesses.
Readers of my posts here will be familiar with my concentration on the defensive fragilities of West Ham. This is the 3rd post this summer and the 6th since last year which has tried to highlight this as an issue. There is a risk that I sound like a broken record, but the point has to be hammered home. Like all on here I love West Ham. However I am baffled by the priorities and squad analysis which is highlighted by both Bilic and the Board.
First of all broken record time. 6 weeks ago I flatly and completely disagreed with the publicly stated analysis produced by the club hierarchy that West Ham flirted with relegation because they did not have sufficient strikers last season. I fail to see how any detailed analysis of last season can conclude this. West Ham was plunged into the relegation mire because we could not defend. This was the sad and unpalatable fact. Actually West Ham conceded more points from winning positions than any other team. This was the standout weakness.
Certainly there were other problems. Bilic admitted problems with intensity, commentators criticised fitness and athleticism, and there was undeniably a problem with finding a fit striker to play up front.
Despite these issues it was overwhelmingly the defence which nearly dragged us into the relegation mire. Although we eventually finished 11th, this disguised the real position. In a compressed lower table we were, like many other clubs, in the end only a few points away from the relegation trapdoor. We were certainly far closer to the relegation fight than any realistic chance of challenging the top 7.
In actual fact there were two questions with our defensive performances. The first was that we managed to regularly concede goals against competition from teams around and below us. For example we conceded a lead against Middlesbrough at home, a performance remarkable given Middlesbrough’s inability to score against most of the rest of the PL. The Watford defeat at home was particularly demoralising for the team, with promising attacking play ending up with us being hammered with 4 goals at the other end.
In addition, on most occasions we simply could not live, defensively, with top 6 teams either at home or way. The problem for our fan base is that in general we started to approach games against Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool with an element of fear and apprehension. Expecting a rout at home by 4 or more goals certainly did not help adjust to the new London Stadium.
However I am personally convinced that these terrible defensive performances have nothing whatsoever to do with playing at the London Stadium. The fact is that ever since January of 2016 we have had a leaky defence. The final year at the Boleyn was exciting but we were seeping goals all over the place. I produced an analysis last year to show how we were conceding on average 2 goals a game in the latter half of that season starting with the famous Everton away win during which, even there, we conceded 2 goals. We should remember that in our last two games at the Boleyn alone, despite the excitement of the Manchester United game, we conceded 6 goals, losing 1-4 to Swansea.
So this is a problem which has beset our team for at least 18 months. We go on quite long unwelcome runs during which we on average concede at least 2 goals a game, at times last season we were averaging a 3 goal deficit every game. There is no way on earth a side can plan for success with this defensive record. If a team has to score 3 goals on average to win, or 2 to gain a point we will be in trouble. This will be the case whatever Stella attackers we bring to the club, welcome though they be, If we had Namer, Ronaldo Messy and so on we would struggle if we continued to concede at this rate.
Thankfully, for our survival last season, Bilic adjusted to this problem. The most productive and successful tactic he deployed was to play 3 centre backs. Although this system was tried and failed in the away games against Chelsea and Manchester City early in the season it was deployed with much more success, with Collins as a component in the latter parts of the season. This was the bedrock which underpinned the famous win against Tottenham. It was also the method underlying the shut out of Everton’s Romelu Lukaku to finally stop his scoring run against us. These were important not just for morale, but the eventual critical points they provided us with. Our points total was helped by the away win at Burnley but as Bilic said at the time it might have been very different if the pressure had been on to get a result on that final day.
This makes it all the more baffling is that, as far as I can see, all the club recruitment and pre-season preparation has revolved around returning to the failed 4 at the back formation which has created so many problems. There is only limited evidence that the club has got to grips with this over the summer. Weaknesses in the Goalkeeping and right back position have been addressed. However the critical central part of our defence is completely unrefreshed and actually denuded. We have a suspect central defensive section which is just as much injury prone as our striking section. Collins, Obonna, Reid, and Fonte all have significant injury records. If we are to cover 3 positions at the back it seems irresponsible to me to rely on 4 defenders, none of which have managed to complete a season in recent history.
In comparison and in contrast we have 3 or possibly 4 striking options to cover essentially 1 loan striking position in our normal formation. Admittedly our striking options are injury prone but the same can be said for our defensive options.
It stretches my credibility that we are really intending to rely on only 4 central defenders with inconsistent fitness to cover 3 critical positions in our squad. With our present line up it will, I predict, be inevitable that we will be playing people out of position in central defence to fill the gaps.
This seems a monumental gamble to me. Yet this is a gamble that the club seem oblivious to. 2 of our brightest young guns, Burke and Oxford, have been sent out on loan, with only the promising 18 year old Rice to backup what looks largely like an aging quartet with suspect pace.
Most of you will have the advantage over me in reviewing pre-season performances. I have not been able to access any radio or audio commentaries. We should also be aware that famously pre-season performances may not be a guide to actual Premier League performance. Despite this it appears, from reports, that at no time have we reverted to 3 at the back in our pre-season preparation. I find this baffling given that the only time we looked secure last season was when we deployed this formation.
Despite the unreliability of pre-season friendlies it does not look like that we have achieved any defensive solidity against even lesser opposition. Conceding 3 in a lack lustre display against Manchester City was wearyingly predictable but surely it was not part of the plan for a largely first choice defence to concede 3 goals a few days earlier against the German equivalent of Forest Green Rovers?
Finally and in conclusion I do not insist that West Ham have to play 3 at the back. If we can play 4 at the back and achieve successful defensive solidity I will be personally delighted and race onto this site to eat humble pie. However what I do insist on is that West Ham should at the very least prepare in their squad and team formations for the option of playing 3 at the back, given the critical role this has achieved with past performances. There seems limited evidence that this has achieved sufficient priority in either squad development or the pre-season friendlies. In our first game we will face the agent of multiple previous goals conceded and defeats in the shape of Romelu Lukaku. We overcame his goalscoring prowess with the Payet inspired comeback in 2016. Apart from this The only occasion in 9 attempts that we looked as if we could cope with his threat was when we played 3 at the back against Everton in our home fixture last season. Our pre-season does not seem to have learnt any of these lessons.
Time will tell.
COYI
David Griffith
R
.