The last week has been a very quiet one for West Ham transfer related news and I am afraid there is not a lot to report on other than most of our possible targets have drifted in the markets (less chance of signing). Perhaps we have done all our business so far this window as G&S and Slav have suggested? I find it difficult to believe however that we do not intend dipping the toes in once or twice again? The Adrian saga of “will he” or “ won’t he” continues as Newcastle and Palace continue to be the ones most likely to do a deal should the keeper move on. This particular market has been one that has continually fluctuated since the signing of Joe Hart so it has been a hard one to predict. Two deals that were predicted back on the 22nd July on my Bookies Update article were the transfers of Neymar and Matic to PSG and the Moaning Ones respectively. Where there is smoke there is fire! The bookies update on the 19th July predicted Morata to Chelsea, Mendy and Danilo to City and deals that still seem to be on with Sigurdsson to Everton and Stewart Downing to Birmingham. This week’s update on possible West Ham targets see the same old faces but there have been changes to the markets.
Adrian as stated above, this is a hard one to predict as the market has fluctuated more than any other since the signing of Joe Hart. Presently, Crystal Palace are favourites for his signature at 10/11 (a fraction more than 50%), with Newcastle quoted at 9/4 (30%) and we are 5/2 (28%) to keep him. Now if you add up all those percentages they came to 108% and may wonder how that can be? Someone on the blog asked this last week. In very simplistic terms it is because of the bookies percentage in the market (that ensures their profit if all punters bet an equal share relative to the odds). I will continue to show the percentages as I have been as it is much simpler for everyone to understand.
Andre Gray has been quite a drifter in the markets. Over the past two weeks he has gone from 11/8 (42%) to 5/2 (28%) and now 7/1 (12.5%) to join West Ham. Watford are the new favourites to sign him although there has been money for him to stay at Burnley. He seems to be moving off of our radar but it would still not surprise me if he is one of those players that makes a move as darkness sets in on the 31st August?
Das Bost is an interesting one as he was featured in my very first Bookies Update on the 18th June. He was 4/1 (20%) to join the Hammers back then and the bookies stopped showing any markets for him. They have started advertising the odds again and he is still 4/1. The Dutch forward is favourite to stay at Sporting CP and I would be surprised if anything came of this one to be honest.
Jack Wishere is a slight drifter from 4/6 (60%) to 4/5 (55%) and despite his injury concerns I am warming to the idea of him becoming a Hammer. At the moment we seem to be the only contenders for his signature with Arsenal at 6/5 (45%) to keep him.
Jota has also drifted slightly in the market from 1-2 (66%) to 8/11 (58%). As alluded to in my previous updates it seems most likely that if we do sign a midfielder before the window closes, it will be Jota or Wilshere unless another player not currently in the markets becomes available.
Keita Balde Diao has also drifted each week since we showed some interest a few weeks ago. Quoted at 9/2 (18%) last week he is now 8/1 (11%) as his intentions seem to indicate he wants to stay and play in Italy – just not at Lazio.
Sami Nasri was one that came on the radar last week at 10/1 (9%) and that has cooled slightly to 12/1 (7%). If he does leave City it appears most likely it will be for either an Italian or French club.
Manuel Lanzini there has been money for our jewel to stay at the Hammers I am pleased to report. Backed from 1-6 (85%) to 1-8 (92%) this week is a positive sign.
This weeks “elsewhere” news is very light on I am afraid with more moves for players to stay with their clubs rather than leave. Chelsea have entered the race for Saints player Virgil Van Dijk despite Liverpool remaining favourites for his signature. The market suggests this one is a bit like the Adrian one – two clubs in a tug of war with the current club still a possibility of retaining the player. Any chance of Ronaldo moving back to the Theatre of Moans looks dead in the water. Sigurdsson looks nailed on to go to Everton and despite Leicester saying that there have been no offers for Riyad Mahrez the market suggest he will be on his way to either Roma or Arsenal with Spurs also showing an interest.
Onto the “first manager to leave” markets, Slav is 3rd favourite at 11/2 (15%) behind Benitez and Mark Hughes both quoted at 7/2 (22%). The bookies markets also suggest we will get 47 points this season, which is two more than last season. Thoughts?