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Should we terminate the ‘Arnie’ transfer?

Guest Post by Forever Blowing Bubbles

Amidst all the talk of a new striker which seems to elude us every year, from the title one would assume that I am about to discuss our reported interest in Stoke’s Austrian international. I am, but it appears in the form of a comparison with one of our own players – one who was, in my opinion, unfairly maligned at times last season.

It has been well reported that Marko Arnautovic is being sought out due to Bilic’s intention for a formation that sees a lone striker supported in a front three beside Michail Antonio on the right and another scoring winger on the left. In our search for more firepower that seems to make reasonable sense, especially if we were to sign my preferred striker Javier Hernandez whose talents are enough for another post on their own. Reluctance surrounding his pay should arguably be quashed immediately; we need to understand that we should be paying the going rate in wages for a striker of his quality or else we risk losing out again. Especially when you consider his meagre transfer fee of 13.5 million vs Arnautovic’s quoted 25million. However, obviously these two do not and will not play in comparable positions. The current West Ham personnel most suited to that position is Andre Ayew – someone who did cost us 20million only last season. If that was an inflated hot air balloon of a transfer fee at the time for him, then the money Stoke are requesting for Marko is the equivalent of a zeppelin.

Ayew was fighting a losing battle with some corners of our support early on when he got injured in his first game – similar supporters who are now singing the praises of Arnautovic. Somehow many of these fans managed to connect the inconvenience of his injury to the money we paid for him, however that is never something that could seriously be held against him – he didn’t choose how much money Swansea requested and how much we ultimately stumped up for his services, though overpriced no doubt, but that is becoming the norm these days. A few months ago some of us were discussing the option – more dream – of weighing in for Sigurdsson – £30 million we reckoned. 50 say Swansea if not more. That’s a no then. Prices are insane nowadays for relative quality, but otherwise middle of the road players. Maybe we should just accept it, difficult as it is to swallow. Taking aside his price tag and early injury now solved, Ayew could be considered then as now a quality addition to our squad, with his prime position being the left side of a front three. Hang on a minute… that’s where we are looking to pay at least £5 million more than we did for him for Marko? Now I actually rate Arnautovic, he is a good player and would improve most squads, but would I start him over Ayew in that position? No. Here’s why…

Comparing some statistics of the two, Ayew trumps Arnautovic in a number of ways. His goals per game ratio is an improvement on the Austrian’s through his career from Marseille to West Ham vs FC Twente to Stoke. Looking primarily at their careers in England though, Marko has scored 26 goals in 129 appearances in all completions vs Ayew’s 18 goals in 59 appearances. It is also worth baring in mind that Arnautovic has spent double the time in English football than Ayew. Andre’s shooting accuracy is at 40 percent vs Marko’s 27 percent – that even tops our man Antonio’s accuracy of 33 percent in his two seasons in the top tier. This equates to a 0.31 goals per match ratio for Ayew – the exact same number as Antonio – vs 0.18 for Arnautovic . Some may argue that many of Ayew’s goals are tap ins – as I’ve heard said multiple times at the London stadium – but do we really care how they go in? What I see isn’t a player lacking a quality shot, but one who always knows how to be in the right place at the right time, something many of our other players lack.

An interesting fact….and I use the word interesting liberally…of the 21 goals Arnautovic has scored in the premier league only 3 have been left footed and none scored with his head. Considering we would play him in a left sided position, that suggests he favors the cutting in approach, which while effective can often be controlled by good defenders once they know your game. In contrast Ayew is a much more balanced player: 10 on his left, 2 on his right and 6 with his head, making him harder to predict. The only attacking statistic where Arnautovic runs Ayew off the field is in his assists -23 during his time in English football vs Ayew’s measly 5. Very different types of player ultimately then, if that statistic is anything to go by. However, it is worth noting that Antonio also only boasts 6 assists to his name.

From this information, the conclusion that I draw is that for both their pros and cons, it is Antonio and Ayew who are a very similar pair and would therefore I believe work well in tandem in supporting our new striker. It is a partnership that we saw little to none of last season due to injuries to both and something that would be worth exploring before confining Ayew to the bench and replacing him with Arnautovic off hand. Ayew also has it in him, and I saw glimpses of it last season, to be the never say die, give everything, sprint to the last whistle, type of player we have come to know and love in Antonio and I believe we will see more of that from a fully fit version of the player next season.

There is no doubt that Arnautovic’s assists would come in very useful and he is the type of skilful player I like to see in a West Ham shirt and I would be in no way disappointed if we bought him, especially if we employed him in a different system that could accommodate both. However, for the price tag and based on these statistics I am not convinced he is an improvement on the current player we could employ in that position who we spent similar money on barely a year ago, but I am more than happy to be proved wrong as I chomp at bit with excitement for any incoming transfers ahead of the new season starting!

COYI

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