Before we start analysing this match, it’s important that we appreciate and understand the quality of our opposition. The result hurt, of course it did, and the last thing we wanted was another decimation at the hands of Manchester City. However, the result needs context.
1. I don’t believe there are many teams that could have matched or beaten Man City in the form we encountered. As Darren Lewis of the Sun mentioned, this is not the barometer by which West Ham should be judged.
2. Gabriel Jesus, Sane and Stirling are the fastest, most skilful front line of any team I can think of, certainly in the Prem.
3. We played poorly and gifted them opportunities. Sadly for us, so high is their skill level that they converted each of the three opportunities into goals.
4. Despite their domination in possession, they were restricted to four shots on goal. However, they scored with three of these.
This isn’t designed to defend the performance, but the gulf in ability, cost of acquisition and wages has to be noted. Jesus and Sane alone cost almost £70 million and it tips over £110 million when you include Stirling.
To achieve results against teams with far superior financial power requires something special from the players and the manager. Unfortunately, it didn’t come together as we all hoped but we shouldn’t forget that we were very long odds to win or draw this game.
The acid test
It’s not fair to judge the manager or the players based solely on this performance. Better teams than ours have and will be beaten by similar margins, so let’s not hit the self-destruct button just yet.
There are also contributing factors that compound the effect of the defeat and make it feel worse than it is.
These factors are:
Losing Payet
We wanted to show the world that things are going to be OK without our leading creator. Had we finished the game losing by one or two goals, we’d feel justified in our beliefs that we can still achieve great things without him. Sadly, that’s not necessarily true. However much we want to ignore it, Payet is the most creative player in Europe and we don’t have a player of his talent’s at the club anymore. Lanzini is a rough diamond that needs to develop, and I think he will, but we lost something very special in Payet and we need time to adapt and overcome, which we will.
Recovering from the cup defeat
The 5-0 defeat we suffered in the cup is fresh in the memory and everyone would have wanted to rectify that. In some ways it must have added extra pressure to what was already a very difficult game.
Bilic
We are all so desperate to see him succeeded, but we have to cut him some slack. He is far from the finished article and has made mistakes and sometimes it appears as if he’s done little to rectify them. The team, for a long time, has been defensively poor and we are conceding too many goals. There appears to be a lack of tactical clarity implemented by the manager and players sometimes look lost and uncomfortable in their positions. The players are not without blame, of course, as they have failed to execute the game plan effectively.
I believe Bilic is similar in some ways to Lanzini. He has all the abilities to become a be one of the best, and on his day can compete with anyone. However, consistency is the key and Bilic needs time to grow and learn. He, similar to Lanzini, needs stability, support and a wide berth in order to succeed. I hope he gets it, but we must be patient as there will be a lot more highs and lows as we forge ahead in our quest for stability.
Full backs
Sadly, Cresswell hasn’t fully recovered from his injury and has been underperforming since his return. He has been at fault for several goals and desperately needs and injection of confidence and some competition to up his game. Masuaku will hopefully provide the latter on his return from injury.
Byram had a good game against Middlesbrough, but he received more defensive cover from Feghouli, which helped. Unfortunately, against Man City he wasn’t at his best and Feghouli didn’t provide the cover that he had previously. This compounded Byram’s problems and left him exposed against one of the best attacks in Europe.
Teams like Spurs, Everton and Chelsea epitomise the importance of having high calibre full backs/wing backs. Ours are developing and will need time, but I think we have some promising talent.
For me, it also highlights how important our need to get cover for Byram was in January. I understand if no suitable players were available, but Jenkinson or Debuchy on loan for the rest of the season didn’t seem beyond us?
New signings
Snodgrass had an excellent debut. His technique, ability to retain the ball and his desire to defend and organise were exemplary. He has been performing to the same high levels for Hull all season and although he played just 31 minutes (including injury time), we got to see what he brings to the team.
He completed 15 of his 16 passes in his short time on the pitch. Noble was our best passer completing 35 out of 43, which highlights how effective Snodgrass was in this key area.
His ability to hold on to the ball also gave our attacking players time to transition, which allowed us more options going forward. His share of possession was 1.9% which almost doubled Feghouli’s 1% in the 60 minutes he was on the pitch. Noble was again our leading player in this area with 4.4% but he played the whole game, where Snodgrass was limited to 31 minutes.
Despite a couple of errors and the fact he is finding his feet – in a baptism of fire – Fonte made some great passes under severe pressure and gave his all. He also chipped in with five interceptions, four clearances, three headed clearances and one tackle. I believe this partnership will grow to become one of the strongest in the league and if our full backs can develop in a similar fashion, then the future is bright.
Tactics
I thought Bilic would start with a back three against Man City. The extra defensive cover combined with more players in midfield appeared a more calculated choice. Everton and Spurs have also been successful against Man City in this formation and it’s a system that we have experience playing.
It’s unfair to say Bilic went with the wrong system, but the choice not to change it, especially at half time, was a curious one.
Sane and Stirling’s blistering pace was exposing our flanks. The precision passing orchestrated by Silva, Toure and De Brunye carved through our midfield and the speed at which they transitioned into our defensive third was frightening.
With Byram and Cresswell finding it difficult to contain the threat, Fonte and Reid were often pulled out of position creating numerous pockets of space for them to exploit. It was a masterpiece of movement from the away side, but we should have addressed this tactically and switching to a back three seemed the logical choice.
Bilic decided to stick with the same formation after half-time, possibly believing that the player’s lack of execution and pressing was the issue, not the formation itself. Unfortunately, we encountered the same problems and little changed until the inclusion of Snodgrass and Fernandes.
The heat maps from the game show that Man City’s attacking players Jesus, Sane, Sterling, De Brunye and Silva operated almost exclusively on our flanks. Fonte, Reid, Cresswell, Byram, Lanzini and Feghouli are highlighted on our heat map, showing how deep we were defending, especially on our right.
It also shows how high Cresswell’s average position was and when we compare this to their attacking heat map, we can see how heavily they targeted this area.
Moving forward
We need to put this match behind us and move on. Southampton will prove a stern test on Saturday but one that we can win.
Southampton are a fantastic football club and they have to be admired for the way they run the club and conduct their affairs. They have a wonderful system for recruiting talented players and managers and despite consistently losing both they continue to perform.
They share many similarities with Sevilla and their business model. Both are superb footballing institutions. But I digress…
All praise aside, there is work to be done to pick the team up and focus on Saturday’s game. We bounced back with a 3-0 win against Crystal Palace after our last heavy defeat to Man City, so we’ve set precedent.
Bilic and the team will have a few days on the training pitch and Fonte and Reid will have more sessions to get to know each other. It’s important to remember that this was their first game together, that Fonte wasn’t fully match fit and that these partnerships take time to develop.
Mistakes from Wednesday will be analysed and improved upon. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see Snodgrass start in place of Feghouli, who will provide better cover for Byram, as well as energy, technique and skill. I don’t expect to see any more changes, but if Kouyate were fit then personally I’d consider starting him in place of Noble.
This will be a tough match and Southampton are a quick, energetic team and they’ll be hungry to get points on the board.
If we can put the Man City game behind us, focus on the fundamentals and give our all, then I think we stand every chance of securing a victory.
Whatever the result, I know we’ll hear the deafening chorus of our away fans shaking the rafters at St Mary’s and I know we’ll all be cheering along, wherever we are.
Onwards and upwards!
COYI