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The Terence Bates Column

Strike Force or Farce? A Lesson in Mathematics.

So finally West Ham have signed Italian striker Simeone Zaza from Juventus on some elaborate loan deal.

Football is really a simple game you have to score more goals than your opponents and win. In order to do this, you need good players and players who can score those goals.

West Ham despite their relative success last season struggled to smash those goals in on a consistent week to week basis, certainly in a way that would have elevated them to the top four or even stand a chance of winning top spot like Leicester did with Vardy their goal machine.

So with that in mind the club rightfully recognised the need for improvement to find a striker that can hit the back of the net regularly and rack up the goal count and made it a transfer priority bringing in no less than four strikers Zaza, Ayew, Fletcher and Calleri

And here is a summary of our Strike Force on the main First Team squad, a motley crew of;

  • Andy Carroll
  • Diafra Sahko
  • Andre Ayew
  • Enner Valencia (now departed)
  • Jonathon Calleri
  • Fletcher
  • Simeone Zaza.

Yep seven forwards/strikers. Pretty impressive?

7 Up… on the striker’s front should be fizzing those goals in… but behind this statistic of seven strikers lie the real statistics…. and it is not really fizzy at all.

  • Diafra Sahko: 179 games, 66 goals = 1 goal in 2.71 games = 14 goals every 38 games.
  • Simeone Zaza: 156 games, 58 goals = 1 goal in 2.72 games = 14 goals every 38 games.
  • Andy Carroll: 252 games, 68, goals = 1 goal in 3.71 games = 10 goals every 38 games
  • Andre Ayew: 294 games, 79 goals = 1 goal in 3.72 games = 10 goals every 38 games
  • Enner Valencia: 260 games 61 goals = 1 goal in 4.26 games = 9 goals every 38 games
  • Jonathon Calleri: 123 games,45 goals = 1 goal in 2.73 games = 10 goals every 38 games
  • Ashley Fletcher: 30 game, 8 goals = 1 goal in 3.75 games = 10 goals every 38 games

Average it out and combined all seven players average just 11 goals per season.

Ok there are some mitigating aspects of the above. Fletcher is just on his journey, a smaller argument could be made for Calleri and Ayew has played most of his time as a winger/midfielder, but he has been heralded in as a goal scorer and repackaged as a striker. Sahko of course is in the naughty room and will eventually find his way out. A depressed looking Valencia will I figure soon follow, despite Slaven Bilic’s unwavering faith in him.

Further maths will show that we paid £15 million for an injury prone Carroll, £20 Million for an injured after 1 game Ayew and the latest goal scoring messiah Zaza costing a reported £24 million (should his stay extend beyond the loan period). Fletcher was a free out of contract signing, Calleri is on loan and I will put a value on him at say £4.5 million, Diafra Sahko cost £4.5 million and Enner Valencia cost £12 million.

Total of that lot is a whopping £80 million.

I am trying not to be negative here, but it is a tough call. This is a reality check. The stats contrary to the oft repeated ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’ quote, do not in this case lie, these are footballers and not some dodgy politician. There are enough goals and games to be scrutinised here to highlight the goal ratios and figures. It doesn’t mean they are ‘bad’ footballers.

However, I can’t help but think there is a smack of desperation at the club in the strikers department. Ayew, £20 million really? ZaZa £24 million are we really sure?

When Zlatan Ibrahimovic was touted around as a free out of contract player, but with wage demands of a mind boggling 260k per week at the age of 34, we looked and then baulked at those wage demands and probably could not compete with the appeal of Mourinho.

Yet look at his stats; 681 games, 396 goals = 1 goal in 1.72 games = 22 goals every 38 games.

There is your trophy winning striker, despite his age.

Consistent goal scoring Ibrahimovic is head and shoulders above all of our strikers and not just in height. And at the age of 34 has already scored 4 goals in 4 games for Manchester United. Tough as old boots with few injuries, Andy Carroll will have to play until he is 94 to rack up the number of appearances Zlaten Ibrahimovic has notched up.

We missed a trick here didn’t we?

We perhaps should have offered him £350k a week and trumped Man United, crazy I know. We could have cut the deal as a signing on fee and wages to match Payet, that way it would appear the wage integrity structure (If that is what it is called) remained in place.

We really should be doing more number crunching as opposed to panic buying, which is how it is coming across to me.

NOTE: This article was written before Valencia’s loan to Everton.

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