I got the ‘ump this week. And I think I’m totally justified. On Friday it was my wedding anniversary – whoa there tiger no that is most definitely not what gave me the ‘ump, before you go getting me in a whole heap of trouble (Happy Anniversary Eve if you are reading this).
I spent one lunchtime during the week being a dutiful husband getting a present and a card, thus ensuring a) the stack of accrued brownie points remained intact and b) I didn’t have to sleep in the garden for a couple of nights.
So I visited a well-known large card shop in town, and this is where the unfortunate ‘ump incident occurred. As I walked down the aisle looking for the anniversary section I noticed that the colour red was very predominant down one side of the shop. “Buy early for Christmas” read a sign. You flipping what?!? It’s the first week of August and you have the bare faced cheek to start punting out Christmas cards?
I do have grumpy old man tendencies but please, in the face of this outrage what chance do I stand. I muttered various things about broken Britain to myself (in my head, not out loud, I haven’t reached that level yet) found what I was looking for and huffed back to work.
I imparted my disgust and dismay to a couple of work colleagues and they made the right noises whilst simultaneously looking upon me with a bit of a skunk eye and an expression of “oh god he’s off on one again”.
On the drive home it came in to my mind again, but what also popped up as I had a Christmas theme going on was a phrase I can guarantee all of you have had uttered to you at some stage. You know, when some wag, usually a Spurs or Arsenal fan, will throw in to the conversation “That’s the trouble with West Ham, they’re like decorations, they always come down after Christmas”.
We’ve all had to put up with it. But it got me thinking, is it actually true? I had no idea. How would I find out? Well as Iron Liddy had set such a high bar with her unbelievably well researched column on The Football Brain earlier in the week I thought I better put a shift in and do some research. So rather than my normal ramblings (he says having used 400 words to get to the point) I’m going to present you some facts this week and see if I can solve a mystery.
So I needed to decide on a data range for this investigation and I decided to go from the turn of the century. 15 seasons, which have included relegations, promotions and all points in between, so should give a good representation.
With the help of a few books and the blessing that is the internet I compiled a spreadsheet of the 15 seasons. I split the seasons in to two. Up till the Christmas games and from the new year onwards.
This was broken down in to how many games we won, drew and lost plus the percentage that represented of the games in that period. I also tallied up the points gained in the period.
So this is what the data looks like.
Up till Christmas
Season Win % Draw % Lose % Points
2014-15 9 47 4 21 6 32 31
2013-14 3 16 6 31 10 53 15
2012-13 6 32 5 26 8 42 23
2011-12 13 54 5 21 6 25 44
2010-11 3 15 8 40 9 45 17
2009-10 4 20 6 30 10 50 18
2008-09 7 35 4 20 9 45 25
2007-08 8 42 5 26 6 32 29
2006-07 5 24 3 14 13 62 18
2005-06 7 35 5 25 8 40 26
2004-05 13 50 5 19 8 31 44
2003-04 10 39 11 42 5 19 41
2002-03 3 14 7 34 11 52 16
2001-02 6 30 7 35 7 35 25
2000-01 7 35 8 40 5 25 29
New Year onwards
Season Win % Draw % Lose % Points
2014-15 3 16 7 37 9 47 16
2013-14 8 42 1 5 10 53 25
2012-13 6 32 5 26 8 42 23
2011-12 11 50 9 41 2 9 42
2010-11 4 22 4 22 10 56 16
2009-10 4 22 5 28 9 50 17
2008-09 7 39 5 28 6 33 26
2007-08 5 26 5 26 9 48 20
2006-07 7 41 2 12 8 47 23
2005-06 9 50 2 11 7 39 29
2004-05 9 45 4 20 7 35 31
2003-04 9 45 6 30 5 25 33
2002-03 7 42 5 29 5 29 26
2001-02 9 50 1 6 8 44 28
2000-01 3 17 4 22 11 61 13
So what does it tell us? Well it tells us that like any statistical analysis you can reach several different conclusions.
• In only 6 of the 15 seasons have we gained more points after Christmas
• In 9 of the 15 seasons our win % was higher after Christmas
• In only 4 seasons was our draw percentage higher after Christmas
• In season 2012-13 our record was identical for the 2 periods
• In 7 seasons our loss % was higher after Christmas.
So the answer to my original question? Well it’s not as clear cut as I hoped.
In the majority of seasons we have won a greater percentage of games and lost a fewer percentage after the decorations have come down but this hasn’t translated in to points as well.
It appears we draw more games in the first half of the season which effects our points total in the second half. I recommend that when confronted with the ‘down with the decorations’ phrase you simply reply with “statistically since the turn of the century we win a greater percentage of games after Christmas”. That will buy you some time to move on and confuse the average Arsenal fan.
I now have so many numbers in my eyes I need a lie down in a darkened room listening to whale song.