Guest Post by Littlefork
So just how good are we?
Bianca has had the whinge, guest poster VoR has looked at who we should keep at the club and there has been so much posted about our changing fortunes- 4th at Christmas and now struggling to hold a mid table spot.
But have we actually found our right level in the PL given the players we have? At the end of this piece I ask the serious question, player by player, how many of them would displace their counterpart in any of the teams above us in the league?
I have spouted my own views on why our 4th place at Xmas was such a false position and I’ll quickly repeat them:
a) the fixture Gods were incredibly kind to us
b) our new players hit the ground running and seemed to find form very quickly
c) the usual “top teams” were incredibly slow out of the blocks
d) we had the “surprise” factor, teams hadn’t worked us out and
e) all of our wins (Liverpool and Citeh excepted) were against teams in the bottom third of the table.
So that’s why we were flying high. Our expectations had been exceeded, there was a great feeling of optimism—would we at worst qualify for the Europa league? This was the best football we had seen from a West Ham team for decades and we were winning games.
And then come Boxing Day the results started to go away from us. Performances seemed to drop, teams had worked out how to stop Downing at the tip of that shiny new diamond and then we picked up a string of injuries. And when players lost form they couldn’t really be displaced in the side by other fringe players “just as good”. We couldn’t play a solid 90 minutes of good football. Clean sheets were a thing of last season, consigned to the archives. Players got twitchy when we went ahead in a game and started defending deeper and deeper and now we expect to concede in the 90+ minute of a game; and I am sure the players expect it too.
Some will say it’s all the manager’s fault, and to be sure the buck does stop with him. But does it tell the whole story? A manager can only work within the confines of the budget he has. For PL success you need to have a squad of excellent players…that’s 25 top players who can all come into the team at any time and keep the run going, with no tailing off in performance or results. Squad rotation is vitally important when fixtures pile up because of cup runs etc. It’s also important to keep players fresh and competitive.
So, of our squad of 25 players how many of them would get regular first team playing time elsewhere in the teams above us? In fact you only have to really ask that question about our regular 13 of Adrian, Creswell, Collins/Tomkins, Reid, Jenkinson, Kouyate, Song, Nolan/Noble, Downing, Sakho, Valencia. There’s no point in looking at those who keep our bench warm…..Jussi, JOB, Demel, Jarvis, Cole, Nene, Amalfitano.
I doubt that many of our entire squad would get regular outings. A look at the OPTA rankings quickly shows how we are doing. Only Tonks is in the top 20, Noble’s in the 90s, Collins is higher than Reid. But ignoring the stats and going with what we see and feel in our hearts what would we say?
Adrian…. Threw his gloves down and blasted in his “shoot out” penalty. Became a Boleyn hero. But which top team keeper do we honestly think he could keep on the bench?
Cresswell…has been outstanding for us this year, in his first PL season. But he’s still learning and I don’t think any top team would give him the playing time he needs to continue his development.
Collins….we all love Ginge, the total commitment to the cause. Those shuddering block tackles. Gets a lot of playing time with us because of injuries. I think a top team might possibly use him as CB back up.
Tomkins..Our highest placed OPTA stats individual who is the most likely to get regular playing time in a club above us.
Reid….I really thought I’d be saying he’d be another nailed on certainty to keep a current top team CB on the bench. But now I am not so sure, what do you think?
Jenkinson….really like the lad, hope he stays with us, but like Cresswell he’s still learning and he would not be a first team regular in a higher placed team.
Kouyate….YES! Thank goodness he’s tied down for a few years. A real powerhouse of a player, full of energy and getting better all the time.
Song…Without doubt he would hold down a regular place in a top PL team and with better players around him he would show even more. I have been “wowed’ and disappointed with him in equal measure.
Nolan…a good captain, has put in some good performances for us but his time has been and gone. He would not feature in a top team.
Noble…a true “hammer” and we love him for that. With so much midfield skill in bucket loads in the teams above us, I am afraid Mark would not get much regular time either.
Sakho….too early to judge in my opinion. Blistering pace and not short of confidence. Good in the air and high work rate. If he moved to a top team now he’d be on the bench a fair bit.
Valencia…would he secure a number one spot straight away with any team above us? Chelsea are alleged to have made noises about him but he wouldn’t be their number one striker.
What do you say about Andy Carroll? Does his style “fit” with the best teams in the PL? Would his injury record consign him to the bench or physio table too much?
So, looking at our 25 man squad as a whole, is it any wonder that we are mid table team at best? We have very few players indeed (maybe 3 or 4?) who would get regular first team exposure in a team above us in the premier league.
The Sullivans are aware of how much steady building they need to do. It has to be a 5 year plan at least to grow the squad into something strong and talented enough to compete with the top 6 clubs.
When you look at the players we have and compare them with their counterparts in the teams above us, then it puts our expected season end position into perspective. A different manager might be able to extract more in terms of performance from the team, given that a team is supposed to be stronger than its constituent parts.
The future looks promising, but let’s not kid ourselves. The rebuilding work has only just begun.