England’s 4-1 defeat to Germany represents the triumph of probability over possibility.  On paper England had the better and more experienced players, but unfortunately, matches are not won on paper.  They are won on the field of play, via a dialectical synthesis of tactics and the talent & drive of individual footballers.  The probability was that England would  get it wrong yet again, on both a tactical and performance level, and so it transpired.

Germany, on the other hand, got the synthesis spectacularly right.  They deployed a modern and flexible tactical system against our rickety 4-4-2, and took us apart with their pace, passing and movement.   Yet 4-4-2 seems to be the Capellian orthodoxy.  Many, after the draw with Algeria, openly questioned whether the England coach possessed a tactical plan B?  On this site I posed the question whether he had the flexibility of approach to accept that his chosen plan was not working and recognise the need to try something different?  Would he play Rooney up front, with Gerrard tucked in behind him and incorporate the talent of Joe Cole in to a revised formation? 

We now know the answer to those questions.  Capello made some changes in personnel, bringing in Defoe for Heskey, Milner for Lennon and Upson for Carragher.  However, the system ultimately remained the same, 4-4-2.  It is ironic really, because I well remember previous England coaches being vilified for using this very same system.  How could they persevere with such old fashioned tactics, it was said, in light of continental tactical innovations such as the famed ‘Christmas Tree’ formation? 

This was, allegedly, systematic of the staid thinking and tactics typical of  English football.  After all, English league clubs  played 4-4-2 every Saturday, it was the system that English players knew and our coaches trusted.  Why had England failed to innovate in the aftermath of 1966, as the rest of world football passed us by?

Yet, not all recent English coaches were behind the times in their thinking.  There was Terry Venables’ enlightened tactical regime between 1994-96.  I well remember, the 1996 Euro-Finals and the clinical 4 goal destruction of Holland.  The Dutch were stunned by the system that they faced in that match.  They were  expecting the same old England that they had eliminated in the 1994 WC qualifiers, what they actually faced was a far more sophisticated and deadly opponent. 

Yes, we cruelly lost the semi-final to Germany on penalties, but watching the game again recently, it was surprising to recall just how good England were.  At times Germany were just about holding on.   A new course was set, there should have been further progression in that direction.  Euro-1996 should have been the start of something new, not it’s end.  With the exit of England from Euro-1996, Venables also exited as English coach.  That was a crucial wrong turn for the national side, Venables should have continued with his tactical innovations and prepared England for qualification for the 1998 World Cup campaign in France.  Instead, the self-confidence, cohesion and improved tactics of the Venables period were lost, as we slipped back in to a  more conventional approach. 

Yet now apparently, a 4-4-2 deployed by a celebrated continental coach is ok!  It is no longer a prehistoric formation.  And I suppose it is ok, as one weapon in our tactical armoury, but there needs to be others as well.  One might reason that Capello thinks that 4-4-2 best fits the strengths of the England players?  More pointedly, one might ask, do we actually have the players with the technique and guile to play a more sophisticated 4-3-3 or 4-4-1-1?  The same arguments  were readily made about the England players at Venables disposal, until he disproved them.

The FA’s discussions with Capello, about his England future, need to explore the lessons that he learnt from the Germany defeat?  Will he promote more tactical variation and innovation?  Will that tactical flexibility also extend to listening to his players views?  One wonders whether the alleged dissent in the England camp was centred around player dissatisfaction with the playing system?  Did the players actually want to play another, alternative  formation?  In 1986 and 1990, Bobby Robson listened to his players, should Capello have done likewise in 2010?

If Capello does not continue as England coach, then the obvious replacement is Roy Hodgson.  Like Venables and Bobby Robson, Hodgson is an English coach with extensive experience of European football.  At Fulham he has over-achieved via a combination of tactical nous and the crucial ability to get the maximum out of the squad at his disposal. 

As well as addressing tactical issues, new blood must be transfused in to the squad.  There needs to be a  phasing out of the so-called ‘golden generation’ and the introduction of younger replacements.  Young English players with international potential are there in the PL, they must now be given their chance.  It is vital that they are introduced and acclimatised to international football during the 2012 Euro-qualifiers.  That means promoting the likes of Hart, Foster, Cahill, Shawcross, Young, Johnston, Rodwell, Agbonlahor,  Moses, Sturridge and Wilshire (as well as hopefully some West Ham prospects).  Add these to existing, more experienced players such as Johnson, Joe Cole, Hargreaves, Milner, Defoe and Rooney, within a more innovative tactical system, and we could yet emerge with a brew potent enough to mount a strong challenge for the Euro-Championship in 2012. 

England needs young talent, players hungry to wear the England shirt and to prove themselves at international level.  Too many multi-millionaire, established stars appear to have lost their hunger for  battle, and after the serial disappointments of 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and now 2010, some may be psychologically damaged by their past failures in international competition.

At U-16, U-17 and U-19 levels, England have exciting talent coming through.  There is a danger, however,  that this talent could stagnate in the reserve teams of PL clubs with squads packed full of expensive overseas players.  The ‘Gordian knot’ like problem of the PL’s over-reliance upon foreign talent needs to be solved somehow.  The FA must produce and champion a blue print for developing the national team, that will mean negotiating with the clubs and the PL and securing key concessions.  Similarly, the FA need to give 100% support to the acceleration of Sir Trevor Brooking’s plans for grass root youth development. 

The momentum for positive change can be provided by the painful memories of SA 2010 and public anger at the manner of England’s exit from the last 16.  While an extra factor, in the equation, is the golden opportunity presented by a successful bid to host the World Cup in England in 2018.  Realistically, that could prove to be our next best chance of emulating the World Cup victory of 1966. 

It is time for England to turn over to a new page, where possibility is actualised and probability is on our side.  Can such a conservative body as the FA, initiate the necessary revolution? 

SJ. Chandos.

One of my political blog commenters, Paddy Briggs, sent me this earlier.

Last year Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski published an excellent (and serious) book called “Why England Lose”. I’ve just glanced at it again. Here is their analysis, from the book, of the phases of England’s Football World Cup campaigns. I haven’t changed a word:

Phase One pre-tournament: Certainty that England will win the World Cup

Phase Two: During the tournament England meet a former wartime enemy.

Phase Three: England conclude that the game turned on one freakish piece of bad luck that could only happen to them.

Phase Four: Moreover everyone else cheated.

Phase Five: England are knocked out without getting anywhere near lifting the cup

Phase Six: The day after elimination, normal life resumes.

Phases Seven: A scapegoat is found

Phases Eight: England enter the next World Cup thinking they will win it

They weren’t wrong, were they?

There’s not a lot one can say after an England performance like that. Sure, if the Lampard goal had been given, things might have turned out differently, but like most of you, I have my doubts.

Defensively we were all over the place. The four defenders looked as if they hadn’t ever played together. Terry and Upson were abject from start to finish. Glen Johnson played like he couldn’t give a damn. Up front we showed nothing. Rooney appeared as if he was only half there, while Defoe wasn’t a lot better. But even a half on form Defoe is better than Heskey. I mean what kind of fool thinks bringing on a player like Heskey when you are 3-1 down is actually going to turn a game round? What we eneded at that stage on goals, so why bring on a player who rarely scores, rather than Peter Crouch who has a record of scoring a goal every other game for England.

Steven Gerrard was woeful today, as was Milner. Barry looked busy and Lampard had his best game of the tournament, but by his standards it was still very average.

One of the main problems was the the middle of the pitch was too crowded. No width at all – but if you don’t play with natural wingers, what do you expect?

What a very disappointing afernoon. In theory, man for man, you’d say we should have beaten this German team. But they played as a team and we didn’t.

Yes, you have to blame the players for their abject performances, but if they are playing in an unnatural system, and in unnatural positions, this is what happens.

Virtually everyone could see Gerrard should have been playing behind Rooney and not out on the left, but Capello was having none of it. Terry was playing in the wrong side of central defence. Gerrard was playing in an unnatural position. Go figure.

I don’t normally believe in getting rid of managers at the first sign of grapeshot, but in this case I cannot see how Capello can stay. And do you know who I’d have succeed him? Harry Redknapp. No kidding. We need an England manager who has a record of inspiring teams. Roy Hodgson would be OK too..

What do y’all think?

There are reports that the club may be interested in doing a deal to secure the services of Christian Benitez.   He spent last season on loan at Birmingham City.  Significantly, perhaps, a deal set up by Gold & Sullivan during their last season in control of the West Midlands club.

However, the new regime at St Andrews did not subsequently take up an option to sign Benitez permanently, when his loan period ended, and he has now returned to his Mexican club, Santos Laguna.  Alex McLeish, commenting on the decision not to sign him was quoted as saying that:

“We did have an agreement that the previous board put in place.   He did very well for us and I’m sorry to lose him, but the deal was too rich for us.”

There are two obvious questions here.  Firstly, if the deal for Benitez is too rich for Brum’s blood, would West Ham go for it?  Secondly, as a striker did he actually do well enough last season?  Benitez scored 4 goals in 36 matches for Brum in 2009-10.  That is not exactly prolific, for instance, Ilan’s goal return was similar in far fewer matches. 

His record at international level is more promising, with 10 goals in 30 matches, a ratio of 1 in 3.   Apparently, Santos Laguna have quoted a £7m transfer fee for his services.  With Everton showing their usual reluctance to sell us their players, the deal for Yakubu will probably not happen.  While the other much publicised potential deal for Henry appears to be a non -starter, the riches of US football being a far greater attraction than Upton Park and the PL.

West Ham need greater fire power next season, there is no doubt about that.   Ideally, we need a striker that can score 15-20 goals a season.  However, such players are at a premium and, if available, do not come cheap.  So, could Benitez do a job for us, or should the club be looking elsewhere?

There has also been a further report that a deal for Joe Cole remains a possibility.  We still have a offer on the table, along with Arsenal and Spurs.  Obviously, Cole will not make a decision on his future until after the World Cup Finals.   Financial details aside, both the gooners and Spurs can offer Cole Champions League football next season.  This probably means that a return to the Hammers next season is unlikely, but you never know?

Finally, it has been reported that Matt Upson will keep his place for England’s last 16 match with old rivals Germany.  Quite right!  To drop him for Ledley King or Jamie Carragher, after his performance against Slovenia, would be totally unfair. 

Good luck to Upson and the rest of the England team for Sunday’s match.   If I remember correctly, Upson scored in the 1-2 friendly win over Germany, in Berlin, a couple of years ago.  A repeat Upson goal and England victory would be most welcome. 

SJ. Chandos.

Matt Upson received criticism from Hammers fans last season, some of which was justified and some not.  I have always believed that Upson is an experienced and quality left sided central defender.  However, we did not see enough of that quality last season.  By his previous standards, he had an indifferent season as part of a squad that almost imploded under the burden of its inherent deficiencies.

However, Upson always performed well for England in the World Cup qualifiers.  He never let England down then and he did not yesterday either.  However, it has to be said that he has been treated pretty shabbily by the England management, who relied heavily upon him in the qualifiers only to later demote him in the squad’s pecking order, as King and Carragher were parachuted in ahead of him.

But he did the professional thing, he kept positive, trained and awaited his chance to play.  When it came along, he took it.  He now deserves to stay in the team for the Germany match.  Capello must not do a ‘Alvin Martin. ’  You may recall that in the last 16 match of the 1986 Finals, Alvin Martin came in against Paraguay and did a sterling job in a 3-0 victory.  Yet in the quarter-final against Argentina, Martin was omitted once again, in favour of Fenwick and Butcher.  Maradona subsequently had a field day against them in the infamous 2-1 defeat.  Would Martin have done any better? I believe that he would have done, but regardless, his prior display had earned him the opportunity to play against Argentina.

Anyway, well done Matt Upson, you had the fans brick bats last season, now accept the boquets!  Just keep focused, maintain concentration and continue doing the straightforward defensive things well.   If you can also manage some more top class tackles and ariel sortees in the opposition penalty area, then so much the better!

Qualifying for the latter stages, as 2nd in their group, means that they have a challenging route to the Semi-Finals.  It means Germany in the last sixteen and Argentina in the quarter-finals (failing a upset by Mexico).  Should we fear these contests?  Of course not, the World Cup Final is about playing and hopefully beating the best.  These two teams are probably England’s  greatest rivals in world football.   We as fans should relish the spectacle, the challenge, the passion and the history. 

Although, I hasten to add that this is football rivalry, not some sort of  rematch of two World Wars and the Falklands conflict.  Sport is sport, it is not war by other means, as much as some tabloids would have us believe that it is.  National pride is fine, but we need to keep it rationale and real.

With regard to the England players, they have a golden opportunity to make the nation banish past disappointments and focus on renewed glory.   It’s a chance to avenge he reverses of 1970 and 1990, in the case of the Germans, and the 1986 and 1998 defeats to Argentina.  In addition, they can prove their ability on the greatest stage of all, representing their country in the latter stages of the FIFA World Cup Finals.  What greater incentive would any footballer want or need?

Can  England win it, my pre-tournament prediction was that they could progress to the semi-finals.  Once they get to the latter stages it takes not only good individual performances, team tactics and organisation, but also a bit of good fortune at strategic junctures.  We have had such enormous bad luck since 1970, and that milestone defeat in Leon, maybe now the pendulum is set to finally swing back the other way?  So, lets keep our feet on the ground, but be open to the possibility that, in the right circumstances, we could progress to the Final. 

And Brazil or Spain will likely await us at some point.  Are they very good?  Yes.  Are they unbeatable?  No.  The French proved in 1998 that a passionate, committed and organised European team, with sufficient quality, can beat Brazil.  While, more recently, Switzerland destroyed Spain’s myth of invincibility.  Certainly, if we were to beat Germany, Argentina and Brazil or Spain, that would be a great achievement. 

Could it happen?  It is possible, if not probable!  As the the popular saying has it, stranger things have happened!  And there may well be ‘more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than dreamt of in your philosophy.’  (Hamlet, Act 1, Scene v)

If the odds ultimately prove too great, then at least give us fans a glorious adventure that makes us proud of the players that wear the three lions on their chest.  While the team must be able to later look themselves in the mirror and say, without regret, that individually and collectively they gave it their very best shot.

SJ. Chandos.

In a recent interview, David Sullivan referred to a young Spanish defender who was a potential transfer target.  The identity of that player was then something of a mystery?  That mystery now appears to have been solved.  West Ham attempted a potential coup in lining up the signing of Barca prospect, Andreu Fontas. 

Fontas was in the last year of his contract and had a £2.5m buy out clause.  Unfortunately, the West Ham approach resulted in Barca offering an improved contract and Fontas is now staying put.  The coup may have failed, but the attempt showed admirable ambition on the part of the club.   As has the latest reports that we may be in the frame to sign young French striker Loic Remy.  The so-called ‘new Henry’ was being courted by Wenger’ gooners, but who knows we could nip in there and make a deal to take him to Upton Park.

Avram Grant will be preparing his plans for pre-season, the assessment of the current playing staff and the much anticipated restructure of the squad for next season.  Almost certainly, those plans will include assessments of the stengths and weaknesses of the youngsters in and around the first team squad.  One hopes that he will not rush to any rash conclusions and will give himself the opportunity to work with them first hand.

In particular, I hope that he will recognise the potential of the young defenders at the club, particularly Tomkins, Daprela, Spence, Fry and Eyjolfsson.  While Daprela needs to now challenge for a regular starting spot at left-back next season, in central defence James Tomkins requires  support, advice and the rebuilding of his self-confidence.   Similarly, in Spence, Eyjolfsson and Fry we have three other highly promising centre-back prospects, who also respectively have the flexibility to cover the right and left full back positions and the anchor role in midfield.   I would be interested to see Eyjolfsson given a proper run out at reserve team level as a defensive midfielder, winning the ball and shielding the back four.

There was talk at the end of last season of Alvin Martin joining the coaching staff as a specialist defensive coach.  I am not sure if that was just speculation, but it seems a good idea to me.  Someone like Martin has played at the highest level and been coached not only by John Lyall, but also by specialists like Don Howe.  Alvin Martin was once quoted as stating how much he learnt about the advanced techniques of defending whilst with Howe on England duty.  Techniques such as defensive positioning and denying the attacker space and opportunity.  Presumably, Martin could now pass these techniques on the next generation of West Ham defenders.

Talking of England central defenders,  it appears that Matt Upson will start tomorrow afternoon.  Now, I am fully aware that Matt Upson’s playing performances and captaincy, last season, attracted a fair amount of debate amongst Hammers fans.  However, I think that it is fair to say that Upson never let England down in any of the WC qualifiers in which he played.  Lets hope he comes in, does well and makes it extremely difficult for Capello to drop him.

England should beat Slovenia at a canter, but the same was said of  Algeria.   Hopefully, England will put their apparent internal divisions aside and produce a good, match winning performance later today.   However, we desperately need an injection of creativity in to the side.  That’s the essential diagnosis on which many England supporters are agreed, the treatment should be the introduction of a fresh and in-form Joe Cole.

Regardless, lets hope that Capello makes the right calls?  Whether he sticks with 4-4-2 or implements a plan B.  A potential second round match against either Germany or Ghana should be a great incentive to both the coach and the players to get it right.

SJ. Chandos.

Scott Parker has been quoted by a number of sources as stating that he is looking forward to working with Avram Grant.  Obviously, this is not conclusive proof that Scott Parker will to stay at the club.  However, it is a good indicator that he is reconciled to the new managerial regime and looking towards next season.

Personally, I think that, after his relatively difficult time at Chelski and Newcastle Utd,  Parker has found a suitable stage at Upton Park upon which to play his football.  Certainly, Parker’s form last season was probably the best of his career.

Further stories emerged today in the media transfer rumour mill.  The pick of these was the newspaper story linking us with a c.£3m bid for the promising Rennes wide player, Sylvain Marveaux.  He is a former French U-21 international and a player that has attracted recent interest from Chelski and Man Utd.  At 24,  Marveaux is a good age and could prove a bargain buy for that type of fee.  

Another rumour that surfaced over the weekend was that we might compete with Birmingham City for the signature of Paul Konchesky.  It may just be press speculation, but if true then it could indicate that there is a question mark over Illunga’s future at the club.  My preference would be to see a fit and in-form Illunga competing with Daprela for the left-back spot next season.  However, after his injury wrecked 2009-10 season, I would not be totally surprised if Illunga sought pastures new in the summer, with perhaps a possible return to French football.  We will have to watch out to see if there are any further developments on that one?

The signing of players of the age of Hitzsperger, and possibly Marveaux, is  a good sign that Avram Grant will target younger players, rather than those way past their best.  Recent stories about signing some formerly notable players, in their mid-30s, have been a bit worrying.  We really do not need to once again become a retirement home for players way past their best.  

Of course that cannot be a blanket policy, a class player like Riquelme may be 31, but he can certainly bring something extra to the squad.  At the end of the day, it is all about how much the player has left in the tank and the individual contribution that they can make in the short-term.  In addition, it must also be recognised that the restructured squad needs experience in key positions.   

Another point of interest is the future of Valon Behrami.  There are strong rumours circulating that Grant may cash-in on him to help strengthen other positions.  This may well be true, but I doubt that Grant would want to lose a player of Behrami’s ability unless it is absolutely necessary. 

I certainly do not believe that there is any legitimacy in the recent Mark Noble to Stoke City rumour.  Noble played a key role in West Ham’s successful survival bid in the final third of last season.  He amply demonstrated his combative abilities and his vision and range of passing.  It is time for Mark Noble to push on now as a senior Hammers player.  And I expect it to be in the midfield anchor role, where he can use his tackling and ability to distribute the ball to best effect.  As such, I fully expect Grant to retain Noble’s services next season.  

The less said about Friday’s evening’s debacle in Cape Town the better!  Fabio Capello now needs to show his tactical flexibility and ability to motivate and deploy his players to achieve an up-turn in performance and results.  In both the 1986 and 1990 WC Finals, Bobby Robson had to rip up his original tactical and selection plans and try something different to qualify for the 2nd phase.  On both occasions, he listened to his players and successfully introduced a revised tactical system.  Does Capello have the same ability to listen and adapt his plans?    We shall see on Wednesday afternoon?

Finally, it was interesting to read Sir Trevor Brooking’s view that English football has some truly outstanding prospects at U-16, U-17 and U-19 level.   All things being equal, these are the players that will come through for the 2016 European Championships and the 2018 WC Finals (hopefully staged in England?).  However, Sir Trev was also quoted as expressing some reservations about the possible strength of our squad for the WC in 2014, with the probable international retirement of the Lampards, Ferdinands and Gerrards and their replacement by players, possibly, not of comparable experience and international class.

I am sure that the likes of Johnston, Young, Milner, Rodwell, Shawcross and Cahill (as well as hopefully some of West Ham’s current youngsters) will have something to say about that!  In adddition, existing England players such as Lennon, Woolcott, Rooney and Johnson will still be young enough for selection in 2014.  Who knows, perhaps a future England coach will be able to mould their talents in to an effective team unit that is able to mount a credible challenge?

After all, to-date, the so-called ‘golden generation’ have not exactly delivered for England in the major tournaments, having failed in 2002, 2004,  2006 and 2008.  Indeed, 2010 is their last realistic opportunity and whether they deliver in SA will probably define how we come to view them historically.    

SJ. Chandos.

OK, pile of kack. Gerrard, Johnson, Terry, Lampard, Heskey, Rooney all deserved a 2 out of ten. We can probably all agree on that.

Now, do we agree that Lampard has to be dropped so Barry and Gerrard can play together in central midfield? Is this now the time for Joe Cole to come in? Carragher’s banned so does Upson play in preference to Dawson? Should Capello be brave and drop Rooney and Heskey in favour of Crouch and Defoe?

Questions, questions.

here’s my team for the Slovenia game. What’s yours?

James, Upson, Terry, Johnson, A Cole, J Cole, Barry, Gerrard, Wright-Phillips, Crouch, Defoe

If we ever needed proof that sports journalists are just as unreliable as their political colleagues, it came this week. “Capello to keep faith with Green”, seemed to be the consensus. And those that didn’t follow that line were convincing us that he would turn to Joe Hart if he decided to drop Green. Yet today we’re told by the BBC that Capello has indeed decided to drop Green after several shaky incidents from Green in training … and he will be replacing him with David James.

So West Ham’s current shaky goalkeeper is to be replaced by West Ham’s previous shaky goalkeeper, and, who knows, West Ham’s next shaky goalkeeper.

That was a joke by the way. I still think Rob Green is the best goalkeeper of the three and Capello should have stuck with him. I have a feeling I know why he hasn’t, though. I sat next to Ray Clemence, the England goalkeeping coach when I went to see West Ham at Watford a couple of seasons ago in the league cup. I was trying to persuade him of the merits of Rob Green as England’s furture number one. He was having none of it and was clear that he was no fan of the West Ham goalie. Unless his opinion has changed since then, I suspect it is Clemence who has been instrumental in persuading Capello to switch away from Green.

Of course we won’t know until later for definite whether that is the case, but if sports journalists can speculate with far less evidence than I have, why shouldn’t I join them?!

You can imagine how unalloyed my joy was when I heard the news this afternoon that Luis Boa Morte has signed a two year contract extention. There is only one way to describe this signing and that is ‘retrograde’. We had a chance to get a very expensive 32 year old off our books and fluffed it. Boa Morte has scored 2 goals in 69 appearances. Not good enough for an attacking player. At Fulham he scored 44 in 195, so if he is to stay we need to discover how he did that. The rumour was that he was on £55k a week. I suspect that has now been halved. And if it hasn’t there’s something very odd going on.

Sorry to have a downer on this, but I really can’t understand it.